BTC has been sticking to my area of interest very well. The correlation to QQQ has been dropping little by little since May 12. BTC shorts vs longs look good. Funding rates have been neutral. I noticed similarities with the May 2021 fractal and our recent drop. The lower end of the fractal would touch 24k in BTCUSD terms which is roughly the cost basis for BTC. The timing of the fractal also lines up roughly with Fed tightening. Nothing happens exactly as it did before, so keep that in mind. Asia has been buying the bottom heavily. There was a huge drop in Whale held coins but it looks like that vast majority of them were from LUNA. Entity adjusted dormancy flow is scraping the bottom of the barrel (good sign) The Z score isn't quite there yet. Also the 200W MA is around 22k and everyone is waiting for it apparently.
Hey everyone! So I have been staring at the fractal for a few days now. I know I know, the May 2021 fractal is a bit played out, but I think people were just using it at the wrong time. There are definitely similarities here in not only the structure, but the timing of upcoming events. The Fed will start tightening on June 1st which I am sure will send the market in a panic, and possibly crack the bond market. Strangely, this lines up perfectly with the fractal spiking down after the squeeze upward. What is also interesting is when I use this fractal on the BTCUSD chart, the lowest candle of the fractal almost touches the cost basis for BTC (24k). It actually misses it by $200. I mentioned previously that the area of interest will act as a gravitational black hole, sucking price action toward it due to the volume that changed hands in that area. Well I said the only thing that will kick the price away from this region would be a price squeeze or a significant event. The fact that the price is in this range for awhile will naturally cause the price to squeeze so it is no surprise to see that represented in the fractal. However, the timing of the fed tightening relative to the fractal is very interesting. I believed that the summer would be max pain for BTC. This fractal represents that very well. The price starts to recover about a month after the tightening starts which makes sense due to the low supply of BTC even at this price. That is close enough for me! Obviously, nothing happens exactly as it did before, but I found all of these coincidences very interesting to say the least. All other metrics for BTC whether it be whale accumulation, funding rates, short vs longs, supply, dormancy flow, hashrate and overall supply look great. Anyways, I will continue to keep you all updated! Thanks again everyone!
So tell me what you think?
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
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Keep in mind this chart is BTCUSDT not BTCUSD.
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Also, if you want to see how similar the fractal is, expand the chart out and take a look for yourself! Very interesting!
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Ok. That's it, I am drawing a line in the sand here. There will have to be a relief bounce soon. 9 red weeks in a row, is a bit much.
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Price is still squeezing in my area of interest. I expect the price to try to move away from this range soon.
Nice catch. It's very possible we get a Wyckoff accumulation period these next few months. I'll be there for the SPRING ;-)
mysticalwalrus
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@LA_Designer, Thanks! Ya, I set aside quite a bit. I didn't burn through all of it at 26k, I figured we would retest eventually. Load up those sats my friend!