I would like to share with the community my first analysis ever. First thing first I am in the process of learning, so all the feedbacks are more than welcome. --------------------- Let's start,
I have been watching BTC movement very closely more than ever this bear cycle. Even more so as we are more likely to enter a recession cycle within the next 12 months. Not to mention the disastrous world economic situation resulting in the spiking inflation rates, the devaluation of USD and the worst of all: Oil crisis. -------------------
July 13
After BTC started its rally to "summer moon," a sudden reversal in trend formed a wedge on the Jul 20 by a reversal in trend caused by Elon Musk's BTC announcement (short). -------------------
Jul 22
BTC price started to show premature signs of what seemed to be a regular range movement upward to retest the wedge resistance (yellow) in a natural accumulation pattern to break upward (as the wedge initially formed in an already developed up trend).
But things didn't not go as expected.
The first red flag was that when retesting the support, the price started consolidating longer than usual near the support area then quickly rested the closest resistance before reversion as quickly downward to retest the same support again. In other words, the consolidation happened suddenly for an unusual length of time (breaking the ranging pattern). All this, oddly near the support area.
It seems to me like a failed bull trap (as buyers did not bite in) - Let me know what you guys think ?
Next thing you know the BIG DUMP (breakdown) that we all witnessed a few hours ago.
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To conclude this mini crash broke this short term rally as you can see on the chart I shared. Will it rally ? Will it pull back and bring us to the price levels before July 13th ?
All in all, The next days will tell us for sure.
The 2 decisive Macro factors will be:
1) Retail sentiment / Adaptation to this breakdown or upcoming breakdowns if there will be. 2) Big NEWS / Breaking News. Bullish or Bearish.
As per my TA:
I foresee that we will be pulling back one way of another towards the 21.6K in the short-term. Retesting the 19K resistance in the mid-term.
Thank you for your time.
Please leave a comment, any kind of support will be appreciated !
Your Truly :) --------------------- DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE. These are just my own analysis and ideas about the current market. I am not a professional financial advisor. ----------------------
The summer rally is just getting started... Bitcoin is very likely to hit beyond 30K.
friscotrader
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@AlanSantana , 28k-32k even that is scary...can u imagine they will dump by 16k then
Tradamus
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Hey @AlanSantana, thank you for the support. Totally agree. However the massive exchange inflow of bitcoin this week might give it a couple a hick ups here and there (by institution/whales dumps), which might influence the general retail fear sentiment creating useless resistances. So gotta always, watch for those. As I say, that extra (useless) fear resistance (created by institutions / whales - others) could be the one reversing your trend. Also remember that retail investors are always the weakest players in the food chain and are easily manipulated.
AlanSantana
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@Tradamus, Please allow me to share a chart here to make my point...
The Bitcoin chart is indeed consolidating but not weak, as prices stay very close to resistance ($24,200)...
The fact that many altcoins remain strong is a bullish signal for Bitcoin... See what I mean below:
dRends35
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@AlanSantana Agree - bullish alts show the party is already underway.
Bitcoin is very likely to hit beyond 30K.