My apologies for the cluttered chart, but many of the levels are critical in coming weeks.
Referencing my recent Bitcoin analysis with valid wave counts potentially taking price down to the 27K-30k area, I want to provide a possible bullish scenario as well.
Should Bitcoin's overall uptrend continue, negating my wave count and breaking through the $68,000-$70,000 (a full 4hr close in or above this area outta do it), then a clear fib price and time projection can take us to $128,000 (+/- $2500) by around December 15th, 2021. Don't put much stock into the time projection, but any meaning reversal from either direction will likely occur around this date.
There are numerous confluent fib levels [projection and extensions] between 125k and 130k, including Bitcoin's beloved 1.618 extension typically reliable for projecting wave 3 tops. This is done by taking the distance between Mar 2020 lows and the April 2021 ATH, then adding this number to the confirmed end of the corrective cycle around 29K-30k.
If my original bearish scenario plays out, the next cycle’s price target will be roughly the same; obviously depending upon how low we actually go. This statement is assuming wave C is ~1:1 ratio of wave A. If my hypothesized wave C extends lower than this, then the ultimate 1.618 extension target comes down 1:1. Bitcoin is at a very critical juncture, with an upside window of around 10% before negating almost all near term bearish wave counts. (NOTE: Bitcoin could actually go much higher than the ATH as part of the c of B correction, but it’s proportionately improbable as price rises (without invalidating the count).
Just for fun, if you take the trend based fib time tool and measure the lapsed time of my entire wave a of B, then extend this time from the end of my wave b of B, you get October 20th for the .382 time extension. This would be the first possible/likely time frame of establishing a reversal to conclude wave B. As mentioned above, don’t put too much stock into my fib time statements. The problem is, it always looks/works incredible in hindsight. It’s a quite helpful tool when establishing wave counts of established patterns; but that can be said for all fib tools.
This is not financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor. I’ve been wave counting for roughly 17 years now and just absolutely love everything about EWT, Fibonnaci Analysis, and just charting in general. Me taking the extra time to write these ideas is done solely for fun, both teaching others and having others teach me. I'm not recommending you transact actual assets based on anything I post, ever.
@DataMaestro, Nice work covering both ends... i'm getting nervous too. I saw a compelling wave count of a friend's Eliot wave theory Forcast subscription this morning. They have your (and my) A leg ending Jun 22 pegged as an ABCWXY, and our B leg as a 1. Either an overshot B or a new 12345... it's looking like I might need to delete my first post out of pure shame. haha!
DataMaestro
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@syncro23 If I'm understanding you correctly, they've designated the price action beginning 6/22 as a Wave 1, right? I address this in my first downside Bitcoin post. The price action between 6/22 and 6/29 isn't impulsive, it's corrective.
Regardless, EVERYONE will have different wave counts on some level or another. Even the algorithms used in Elliott software will give you different wave counts than others. This is why I recommend studying, doing your counts on your own, then investigating counts like mine and the one mentioned in the subscription. Then Try to disprove them. I should also say it's about probability. I could count BTC SEVERAL different ways with alternate counts (There's always several alternate counts), I just don't take the time to post all that here. I just go with what I see as most probable.
syncro23
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@DataMaestro, Yes. 6/22 was 1 in their example. I've seen a few different takes on it also, but this particular chart looked pretty convincing. I'm sticking to my guns though. I'll just keep on learning, and try not to get too greedy ;)
DataMaestro
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@syncro23 You could chart software like Motivewave side by side with Tradefinder and get very different counts. You have to consider how deep to start counting (for instance- did you start on the 1 min chart or did you start on the 4hr chart).