BTCUSDT. A drop to 67,000 - 66,000 with potential for a reversal

Technical Analysis:

1️⃣СCI - unstable CCI near 0. Waiting, we need a drop below -100 and then a transition from below to above that level.
2️⃣RSI - between 30 and 50. Waiting. Another pullback to 30 is desirable, but a confirmed breakout of 50 by the time of the trade would also be fine.
3️⃣Levels:
🔸78.6% Fibonacci level h1 (=67,820) + second extension on h1 (=67,025) + a full set of h4 waves (=66,080) + increased volume 2 (=67,270) - roughly defines the potential reversal zone.
🔸Fib 161.8% h1 = 64350 will be relevant if the trade is cancelled.
4️⃣Larger TF (h4) - nothing but Fibo level so far.
5️⃣Price movement forecast - on the chart.

Entry, stop, take:

🔸Entry: Buy. Upward breakout of the 2nd level (=67,270)
🔸Stop: Preliminary stop loss behind the full set of h4 waves (=66,080)
🔸Take: TP based on the 1st volume (=70,640)
🔸Risk/Reward: 2.78, a fairly risky trade
🔸Implementation: Within a week

Cancellation

🔸Sharp move down after reaching the full set of h4 waves (=66,080)

Fundamental:

1️⃣Fear & Greed Index: 8–12 (Extreme fear) → 🟢 Positive for BTC.
Potential reversal.
2️⃣BTC Dominance: 58.2–58.8% → ⚪ Neutral.
Capital favors BTC over altcoins (Altcoin Season Index 35/100). For BTC, this is more of a confirmation of demand.
3️⃣ Funding Rate: negative → 🟢 Positive for BTC.
4️⃣ Open Interest: $102–107B + negative funding → ⚪ Neutral with a downward trend. Rising OI with negative funding = new shorts, no longs.
5️⃣ Liquidations (March 22): $299M, 85% longs → ⚪ Neutral. Buyers have been dumped - there is potential for an upward move, we are waiting for a trigger.
6️⃣ ETF ​​Flows: +$1.17B (March 9-17) → reversal -$130M/-$90M (March 18-19) → ⚪ Neutral. Inflows and outflows pretty equal.
7️⃣ Exchange Net Flow: ~47,700 BTC outflow per week → 🟢 Positive for BTC.
Accumulation.
8️⃣MVRV: ~1.50 (market price $68K / realized price $45,200) → ⚪ Neutral. The market is not overheated and there are no sell-offs in sight.
9️⃣ Whale Inflow Ratio: ~0.62 (declining from a peak of 0.85 at the end of February; normal 0.35–0.55) → ⚪ Neutral. Potentially a local bottom is near.
🔟 Top Holders: accumulation has slowed, whales are waiting for clarity → ⚪ Neutral
1️⃣1️⃣ Geopolitics: ultimatum on Iran → 🔴minus for BTC. The most important minus: risky instruments under pressure. Traders are shifting to oil and gas.

Conclusion: 👈🏻 Neutral forecast for now due to geopolitics.