This is a comprehensive look at the facts to figure out what happened and what our next move should be.
THESE ARE THE FACTS 1. 69 Billion dollars were inserted into crypto out of thin air in less than 48 hours. 2. A staggering 32 Billion dollars were sucked out overnight, essentially wiping out 50% of yesterday's gains. 3. We are still under a death cross 4. we did exit the downtrend channel 5. We are still under a Death Cross
QUESTIONS Was this foreseeable with technical analysis? This massive up move was not, but the fact that money could come in was in the works. We had just entered my second buy zone and hit the 61.8% line right on the nose, I expected buyers but I was indeed surprised by the sudden takeoff. Was the massive drop foreseeable with TA? Yes, once we hit resistance your best bet is to sell, and so what happened is that a lot of people and Algos did just that. So how do you make money in this space? Long term only, just as I have been saying
WHAT BECAME OF THE DEATH CROSS? Did the death-cross play a part in this? Yes, the Algos used the death cross to burn all of those that like to short crypto. Think about this; Why not inject all these billions the week before the death cross to prevent it? Why not the days leading to the death cross? Well... I hope you can see the wickedness of doing it the day after. It was done because a lot of leverage traders wanted to short BTC thinking the death cross is a reliable indicator of price going down. There are a lot of traders out there right now that lost small fortunes overnight. The fact is that we remain under the influence of a death cross and with this massive drop we may go back into the downtrend channel. Meaning this big green candle will show in the daily chart as a long wick only, a reminder of the carnage, and for us long term holders this was all a dream, that candle might as well not have even existed. So how do you make money in this space when there are violent ups and downs? Long term only, just as I have been saying.
WHAT'S NEXT? So, since the beginning I've have been advising you to use only 25% of your budget to buy Alts for the long term. Short term trading does not work out well in the end. For those that continue to hold your 25% purchase, nothing changes. For those that bought in yesterday, you should be out with cash in hand since your Stop Loss kicked in at one point. At this point, BTC is either dropping to get back in the downtrend channel or retracing to take off again, it is hard to tell but it is very easy to sit and wait for clarity. So how do you make money in this space when there are violent ups and downs? Long term only, just as I have been saying.
IFTTT (If this then that) If BTC melts below $8500 then it is no longer a retrace, so that means we are going back down to hit 6500.00. There is a lot of uncertainty at this point, the best move is to not make a move. If you are a long term investor like me, this means nothing. If you are a short term investor this means that you should be back in USD or USDT.
THE TREND: Going Down THE OUTLOOK: Unsafe to buy BTC wait a bit more.
The upheaval that the death cross has created has indeed surprised me. More surprises may be coming, Short term traders keep your stash of cash safe and out of this turbulence.
Umarzia
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@cryptoGats, hello sir I'm reading your analysis from quite time and they are out of box you thinking is different than other analysts.
Sir I've a question, I heard someone saying that in a valid death cross both 50 and 200 MA should follow the trend while making cross while in this death cross 50 is following the trend (bearish) while 200 is not its bullish so it's a fake cross. It's quite confusing to me will you please explain it.
Thanks
cryptoGats
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@Umarzia, thanks for the kind words. Analysis is simple but if we try to complicate it we’ll twist ourselves into a knot. A Death Cross is bad news either way. I have seen people analyze it to death and they miss the point. What the crossover points out is that momentum has run over and we are coming back down. But yes when the 200ma also points down the dip is deeper that’s all.
forex-4ever
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Thanks, this is written in a way that I can understand. Makes me believe that you might have years of experience with the manipulation of markets?
cryptoGats
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@forex-4ever, Yes, 20 years ago I used to do fundamental analysis, that's where I discovered how shady the markets are. You think politics are dirty! Anyways, yes there is heavy manipulation in the crypto world but I won't tell you that is done by the exchanges themselves, that would be hard to belive.
cryptoGats
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If BTC closes were it is now or higher by 8PM est, the odds of staying out of the downtrend channel go up.