Bitcoin price action was manipulated during the last two weeks and the market showed a great uncertainty. That is why we delayed our update to the previous analysis and decided to remaster the whole analysis for the mid and long term timeframe.
We had many sharp drops and increases during last two weeks. Short term timeframe charts looks insane like it was two years ago while BTC was a speculative instrument. Nevertheless if we take a closer look at longer frames we can see a regularity.
We had ABC correction wave from the 8th of August till the 16th of august with a subsequent sharp 13% rise. Further happened another ABC correction which again was followed by sharp 16% increase. Two waves and sharp rises together combine a three drives pattern which lead to a bearish price action development and further continuation of the downtrend. Such patterns tend to have fractal replications as well.
Summing up indicators and trend analysis we derive 4 scenarios 2 of them are the most probable while the rest are in reserve. Tracking the chart you will be able to react fast and adjust your positions
Following the idea of upcoming replication of ABC we derive the price action which will finish reaching $9 036 level closer to the 15th of September. Scenario will take place only in case of confirmation by closure inside of the channel within the next three days. Afterwards only a bounce from support line of the channel will save price action from global descending downtrend. As the support level was tested 3 times and we have numerous upward penetration we conclude that if 1 scenario happens then it will switch to the Scenario III with a high probability. The price will reach $10 336 and will move sideways.
In case price action does not reach the channel within the next 3 days we will have a positive signal for upcoming global uptrend which will result in a fast price increase to $11 912 closer to the 15th of September. However the probability of Scenario II is much lower.
In the worst Scenario IV the price action do not bounce the support of the mentioned channel and sharply breaks down to the larger scale channel which Bitcoin followed until the 17th of July. This will result in continuation of the global decrease and thus in finish of this year rally
Carefully track the progress of this trading idea to adjust your mid and long term positions. Use it to be informed about current price actions. Always study a shorter timeframe scales for scalping and choosing the best entry points
Trade active
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Price action accurately reached intersection area of scenario I and scenario II. There was a small bounce from the mentioned point which significantly increased probability of scenario II. Nevertheless we stated that scenario I will take place with the highest chance in the analysis. The small bounce appeared to be rising wedge pattern which is very bearish and results in a sharp drop which we had today.
Three days from analysis release the price closed inside the parallel channel, hence the first scenario was confirmed. BTC price action has no defense until red (A) point afterwards we suggest switching the long position
Comment
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The analysis was released on 6th of September right before the Bitcoin value went down. Price action accurately reached the intersection of parallel channel upper border and Scenario I direction of ABC red line. Once BTC met the support level presented by the edge of parallel channel the price bounced which resulted in rising wedge and subsequent drawdown because price action lacked trading volume. The second scenario was rejected and the first scenario should have taken its place. We informed about rising wedge pattern and a great possibility of subsequent decrease in the previous update, nevertheless we received a significant willingness of market players to go higher and thus momentum accumulation which still keeps the price at the upper edge of parallel channel.
The point (A) was not reached however our forecasted decrease Scenario 1 plays out. Fractal pattern of continuous ABC retracement with sharp rise in the end was finally rejected.
What does it mean? There will not be any further gradual decrease scenario, moreover when current decrease period ends we will have a long term growth stage.
But what happens now? Let's take a closer look at the short-term time frame chart. At 15-minutes chart we see a clear down trend which is confirmed by solid support level with continuous lower highs in a triangle pattern. Currently the price reached the top and falls down and at the same time we are at the crucial point of psychological $10 000 level. Price action went below this level numerous times today and yesterday. The test of this level was not sharp but gradual combining technical indicators state and lack of trading volume we see a high probability of consolidation below $10 000 level within the next days which will result in a drop to $9 100. Afterwards we should have a rise with impulse growths and natural corrections. Bitcoin's price action became more certain now. Price will reach $10 336 level according to the Scenario III which is the outcome we forecast now.
@saviosax, you can check the latest update which has been just released
smile-btc
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Looks like the bulls managed to stop the price from falling any further. It's important to note that the price bounced off the 0.382 fib levels
Skyrex
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@smile-btc, in case it continues to crawl in a local downtrend we will have drop. Let's see following days price action. bounce from 0.382 and psychological level still is a good sign
smile-btc
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@SkyRockSignals, I've closed two shorts today both around 25-30% profit right before it bounced. Looking forward to your updates in the next days :)
How would you update the charts now, given point (A) was never reached?
Skyrex
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@smile-btc, Yes the price went down till it reached the intersection and bounced, however it turned out as rising wedge with a subsequent drop. The decrease was lightened by trade volume increase and we received support which helped to stay at the parallel channel upper edge. Price action will skip (A) and reach (C) afterwards we should have gradual increase to the Scenario III which will take place
smile-btc
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@SkyRockSignals, Seems about right, but I have a strong feeling that this will end up being a huge shorts squeeze from the bulls on bitmex. They're waiting for the right moment. That's just my personal view.
Skyrex
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@smile-btc, ye they can try and current attempt are successful because we are above 10k now however they still being pressed down and they lack volume to break the trend