I believe we are seeing the reversal here. I have multiple divergences on both RSI and Delta Volume, so I am really liking the reversal right here (as stated in previous ideas, potential still exists for possible push slightly higher, but I like our chances right here).
So what we will be looking for is a test and retest of the upper range before we have good potential for a spring below the trading range. That tends to suck in long positions because we will likely see an impulsive move up. So just be ready for a lot of impulsive moves up, followed by a slow eventual drain lower. This is how we will know that we are in a downtrend, because moves up will be quick, moves down will drag and drip slowly until we have sufficiently retested the top for sellers to come in recognizing we are not moving higher... I would guess to say that tonight into Monday morning is when we should see more of an institutional inkling of much broader swift selling in this range and the possibility exists that we will start establishing a new accumulation zone BELOW the original distribution model we entered into the beginning of the month.
So for now, this is the prediction model I've got. Of course as price moves and confirms, things could change.
Maybe this is a good lesson for you in this market, now you can learn how market work my friend,
welcome to ATH.
morteza1991
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my friend, 19k hitted, now i think you can see what i meant, when everyone thinks this will go lower then it's time for big players to do the opposite,
do you see how easily price just go up without any rejection, it seems there is no resistance level, just went from 16800 to 19000 in a single channel and line, that's how big players do the opposite, now all your charts and TA invalidated.
Zulu_Kilo
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@morteza1991, now just watch.... This is a “clear long”..... Watch people go long here, and watch price crumble like a cake.
morteza1991
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@Zulu_Kilo, all bearish divergence gone as i told you bulls will do it as they did it before over and over, and also 0.78 fib broken and it's clear what is mean, bearish TA invalidate, we can have some small dump just to reset the RSI for more upside.
i told you when most of people think about dump they will pump it hard.
sbahrcrypto
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I wanted to believe but this looks like a pure bullish run rather than a way down to correction.
Zulu_Kilo
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@sbahrcrypto, I'm still fairly assured that we will go lower. Again, I stated that the a climb to 18.6 was entirely possible.
There was a good reason that have made that conclusion... BTC routinely likes to make a reversal at the 78.6 fib instead of the 61.8 fib, sometimes even as far as the 88.6 retracement band. This is impulsive in nature. We are strictly looking at price and price alone as the only factor of our decision. I frankly won't start sweating till 19000 hits. Is it completely out of the question? Of course nothing is.... This is Bitcoin after all.
But on a technical side, there is a good reason I chose to include the 18600 price range as a possibility, simply because of the 78.6 fib retracement band. And obviously for good reason. This move isn't blind-siding me.
morteza1991
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my friend, now do you see how bulls change everything??
with this crazy price action just broke every resistance easy, it seems they weren't exist anymore for bulls.
i just wanted to mention that this market and big players, they don't care about your TA and you see how they invalidated it easily.
good luck.
Zulu_Kilo
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@morteza1991, Well to be honest, I did in fact call the possibility that we could in theory visit 18500-18600 price levels... So it's not that it is a complete shock to me that we are headed into that range.
But... Here are the facts.
RSI is in fact highly divergent from price. As you can see, it is still not breaching the overall trendline... And RSI is still in a downtrend while price is going higher. This is a dead giveaway that a reversal is imminent. And this is exactly the reason I tell traders to NOT be in a high margin position. This was frankly not completely unseen. But the fact still stands. If you started a short at let's say 18200 at a 10x leverage, you're not sweating this move up one bit.
Look at the delta volume, it is in an ascending channel, which means that it should drop. RSI is diverging fully with price as well. Dead giveaways for a pending reversal. To put it simply, this is a long trap for traders that impulsively look at only recent price as the determining factor in their trades. All this "bullishness" is really making you want to dump your shorts and go long. Right? It's "impulsive"... This is exactly what traps traders into the wrong position.
Look at the RSI indicator specifically... What is it telling you? That people are really buying into this?
I will not be nervous unless we go ABOVE the top violet line which is the indication that bulls are in fact in control. Once again, we are still within a probability that became an eventuality. But I would NOT buy into this, this is fake buying, mostly it is people getting into short positions in which exchanges are trying to get people to stop loss out of and go long.
But facts are facts... We broke below the UTAD trading range, so this is simply Last Point of Supply. I'm still confidently short from 18200.
morteza1991
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@Zulu_Kilo, Well about RSI, many times we saw that bulls just reset RSI and pump the price and they make bearish divergence for traders to believe this will dump but after that they will pump the price crazy and invalidate the RSI, i remember more than 10 times since 4k at least, also just look at 1 hour or 4 hour chart to see where is RSI, it has more more room to go up.
last dump from 19.4 to 16.2 was just a big trap for bears and when i see the recovery, it's really crazy.
at the end if move B don't happen then there won't be any C move and i'm sorry to say that but all what you did for days on chart will be invalidated just in a second.
anyway good luck friend.
Zulu_Kilo
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@morteza1991, I can't fully disagree with you on that. Been there done that too... The fact is, you have to have some sort of plan in mind, otherwise it's just blind trading. Not even going to disagree with you and say that crypto in general isn't somewhat rigged.
While they can manipulate the physics of trading to some degree... They can't fully break it's laws completely. At the end of the day, the volatility that we are in trading Bitcoin for is the reason we also hate it so much.
So think of the manipulation as a love/hate relationship. You're attracted to trading it because of the volatility, you hate trading it because of the volatility. Welcome to Bitcoin...
Once again, I won't be nervous until/unless we hit that 19k mark, and then I'll consider SL and going long. Until then: volatility is doing what volatility does best... Be volatile. lol
welcome to ATH.