BTC accumulation phase spring or a massive bear rally ?

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS

It will be a quick one as the chart says it all.

Basically, I think the current setup looks a lot similar to the price action we saw at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2018.

1. BTC made three consecutive lower lows on the 1-week chart, consolidated for a bit then made a new low which was the final one. We saw the same think happening the 15 months.

2. The RSI hit an oversold area around the same level as the one from 2018 while also printing a bullish divergence for the first time ever for BTC (or at least I could not find any older).

3. Volumes increased above the average between the 3rd and 4rd low on both occasions.

4. The price of BTC hit the long-term diagonal support and used it to rebound on both occasions.

5. BTC broke above the 21-period EMA with a solid green candle back then and now. The time of the green candle that broke above the short-term EMA found the RSI in the exact same state and place on its chart as back in 2019

I think it is quite possible we see a significant rally at least up to the first downtrend correction near $46,800 before a significant pullback. This will be in line with the 2018/2019 rally, also relatively similar in terms of percentage growth.
Such a move will be normal in the state of disbelief, but it does not exclude a new low afterwards just like it was the case back in 2019/2020. So the "recession" and "long bear market" scenarios can still come to live.

Let me know what you think in the comments


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