Bitcoin Daily Update (day 215)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “I am setting alerts at $6,400 and $6,800 and will be focusing on traditional markets until BTC decides what it wants to do next.” / Sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,550 | S: $6,445
BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to trend up after forming a higher low
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Both currently acting as resistance
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 is acting as resistance | 128: -4.23%
Volume: Waiting for spike on 1h chart to exceed the selling climax on September 5th.
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
Candlestick analysis: 1h forming shooting star at resistance. 4h is forming a dragonfly
Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud acting as resistance at $6,550. 4h cloud acting as support at $5,450
TD’ Sequential: Daily briefly had a R2 trade below a R1 and quickly reversed. If low at $6,438 is taken out then I expect selling volume to pick up. 12h and 4h are on a R3s.
Visible Range: Continue to trade in highest liquidity zone over the past year and above point of control
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.54% | 24h: -0.5% | 1w: +1.55% | 2w: +2.28% | 1m: -9.31%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA is turning into resistance
Trendline: Down to $6,675. Still wouldn’t be surprised if we get a fakeout above it.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Up: $6,822 | Down: $6,320
On Balance Volume: Bear div’ on daily vs bull div’ on weekly.
ADX: Indicates upcoming trend
Chaikin Money Flow: Resisted 0.05 on weekly. Bull div’ on daily.
RSI: Using 14 setting today. RSI is at 47 and formed a lower high. Now its threatening to break down the triangle it was forming.
Stoch: Bearish on daily and weekly.

Summary: I wish I would have followed my own advice from yesterday. I watched as BTC rejected a retest of the neckline on the 4h cup and handle I have been watching for a few days and could not resist opening a short. I went with another tight stop loss and was chopped out again.

These last few weeks have been very frustrating, to say the least, but I am determined to capitalize on this next move. It is going to be violent and will happen in the blink of an eye. Taking multiple ~1% losses can be made up for very quickly in this environment. That is why I continue to use tight stops and seek out entries that allow me to do so.

If the daily candle can close below yesterday’s then it would be a breakdown of the trendline (green) and it would also be a red 2 below a red 1. That could be a good opportunity to build a short in the $6,400 - $6,500 range. However, be careful shorting below that. $6,100 - $6,350 is the major area of support. If that breaks down then expect a volume spike and quick move to the downside.