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CryptoCheck-
Jan 8, 2024 2:05 PM

Bitcoin : Why the ETF News is BEARISH for BTCΒ Short

Bitcoin / TetherUSBinance

Description

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Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of ChartsπŸ“ˆπŸ“‰

The Bitcoin ETF approval is expected to be announced any day now - but wat does this mean for the price of BTC?

When there's an unprecedented event that will affect the markets, it's helpful to return to the basics:
πŸ‘‰ Buy the rumor, sell the news
πŸ‘‰ Macro Analysis
πŸ‘‰ Candlestick analysis


πŸ‘‰ Buy the rumor, sell the news
If the ETF should be declined (which seems unlikely), the price will definitely react negatively. But if the ETF is approved (as most widely anticipated), the price will likely also drop as the classic dump after good news.

πŸ‘‰ Macro Analysis
Bitcoin is due for a correction / pullback. Even dropping to lower 30K zone would still be a lower high, classic Elliot Wave Theory before the next upwards impulse wave.

πŸ‘‰ Candlestick analysis
BTC has made 5 consecutive green candles in the MONTHLY. A red one is definitely overdue. This will support as a "fundamental reason" for the ETF news.

NOTE that I am still BULLISH on BTC. We're in the opening moments of a new bullish cycle, but there are pullbacks and corrections in upward cycles - and I'm expecting one around the time of the ETF news.


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CryptoCheck

BINANCE:BTCUSDT

Comment

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From a technical indicator perspective, the price is highly overbought. Another reason to expect a pullback soon:

Comment

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In the video I mentioned 48K possible. We turned at $47.2, close enough:

Comment

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Increase to FWB:48K seems likely, I'm still expecting a correction. From a chart perspective and technical indicator perspective, a correction is way overdue:

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In the weekly Timeframe, BTC is highly overbought:

Comment

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Playing out exactly as I thought. An increase to 48K and then an ETF news dump. Retail shows up too late and becomes exit liquidity. We're trading right on top of 42K support, a weekly close UNDER this zone takes us back to 38K. Let's see if we can keep closing the weekly above 42K:
Comments
prefabsprout
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100% right. buy the rumor sell the news.
CryptoCheck-
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@prefabsprout, Indeed πŸ₯‚
MyCryptoParadise_Nathan
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Acknowledgement of the cyclical nature of upward trends suggests that corrections are inherent in the ongoing bullish cycle.
Setupsfx_
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Too early to say it will be bearish since we are only speculating. Better to wait and then see if the news would really have bearish impact on BTC.
CryptoCheck-
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@Setupsfx_ with big news events it's always buy the rumor sell the news (dump after news). I don't see why it will be different this time. But thanks for your feedback.
MyCryptoParadise
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The analyst remains bullish on BTC, expecting a pullback or correction around the ETF news within an overall upward cycle.
Hellstorm2
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its not
unbeldi
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Wave three of the current bull market run from November 2022 should come in at least at 77000, possibly a month befor the halving event. So far the run has been well corrected along the way at every expected juncture. ETF news is just noise, the market structure has been forged for a long time. That is why the funds launched the ETF applications, not the other way around. They don’t want to be left out of another bull cycle.
CryptoCheck-
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@unbeldi, Interesting take. Thanks
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