SimonMercier

BTCUSDT : Updated scenario

POLONIEX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether USD
Hi guys,

So new data available

Scenario C
  • Target (reviewed) : 2.5k-4.5k
  • Pattern : ABCDE correction. MACD 1D centerline crossover. MACD 1D singal center line crossover (new data). Weekly ichimoku conversion line under base line going deeper.
  • Factors of validation/invalidation : MACD 1D stay under signal. MACD 1D stay under centerline. Price staying in the bearish spectrum.
  • Opinion : very high probability
  • Comments : comments are now attached with the chart
  • Chart :

    1) orignal post - Hourly chart - picture the projected Zig Zag 5,3,5 count ending at 6.8k or so. I expect the point C to end near our current lvl             or give a bearish wick at 10.1k.


    2) Daily chart - Nature of fractals implies pattern inside pattern, while on the hourly chart we can count the sub impulse, the bigger picture illustrate an ABC pattern. You can see here the MACD 1D signal center line crossover. I expect then -20% fluctuation in price in the near futur if i apply the same chart behavior as the past signal center line crossover. I will add that ichimoku conversion line is still under the base line (bearish momentum data) while i consider the cloud turning green as an ebb flow of the price fluctuation from 6k to 11k. Effectively price might dump once we get out of the cloud spectrum; conjugated this signal with MACD 1D signal crossing the center line we might effectively see -20% price fluctuation.


    You can see in my anterior post my scenario projection of the MACD 1D following more a bearish direction. Right now it seems to confirm by the new data i.e. I expect MACD 1D to go close the signal and bounce on it instead of crossing it. In this case, it would mean that the bearish projection must be the leading one


    3) Weekly chart - This one can be easily interpreted by a quick look : ABC pattern (with fractals caracteristic on shorter time frame), an ichimoku conversion line under base line (bearish momentum data) going deeper and giving clear direction for the traders that use it.


    here is a variant of the count :



    Conclusion : for now there is no reason for me to conclude to a bull run is to be expected. But that doesnt exclude fluctuation testing the resistance, it just mean that BTC             have high probabilities to pursuit the bearish trend .
Comment: Anterior zig zag count (see the date) :
Trade active: Subwave 1 seems completed at the projected lvl of 9.1k

Trade active: keeping the same projection as MACD 1H moving as projected (compare now vs. original post). Waves and subwave reach projected bearish target :
Comment: main pattern is the zig zag 5,3,5
Comment: I will post an update with new data today
Comment: Still in the zig zag 5,3,5

We have stopped right at the subwave 3 projected target of 8.3k or so (compare yesterday post with this one)

Comment: major wave 3 completed
Trade active:
Comment: Be aware that its not a bottom but if you wanna ride the bounce here is an example of how i would do it
Comment: ill will post the bounce target in an hour or tomorrow
Comment: as a side note : if wave 3 go deeper the wave 5 will go deeper as they noramlly proportionnal or in crypto wave 5th can be very extended. So keep this in mind if you look to ladder in right
Trade active: ABCDE pattern happen at wave 1-2 or 3-4.

It happened at 1-2 and i project this pattern to lead us to major 5

Comment: working hard at the hospital. dont have much time to fully make a complete new post. will try tomorrow morning before departure for a congress.
Comment: target of wave 5 is between 6k-6.85k
Trade active: At the hotel ! Hope to have some ladders filled up when i wake up tomorrow !

Promise to post new full projection tomorrow evening.

Take care,
Simon
Trade closed: target reached
Could you update your analysis :) ?
Reply
SimonMercier RokasBalsys
@RokasBalsys, ahah yea sorry im working on it. was so tired i couldnt move my body
Reply
SimonMercier RokasBalsys
@RokasBalsys, looking at chart right now. i take normally 1 to 2 hours
Reply
You’re the best Simon :-)
Reply
@djtreacy, thanks for your kind words !
Reply
Thanks heaps Simon :-)
So accurate nostraSimus :-p
+1 Reply

Wave 2 took long and turned out kinda complex :P
not an accurate wave count, a quick one lol
Reply
@RyanPal,
1) nothing i see as complex here
2) you chart showing just drawing without projection and target
3) the first rule is to start with trend line. which you seems to not respect
Reply
Thank you Sir!!!
+1 Reply
Good call Simon...how high do you expect for the wave 2?
Reply
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