Bitcoin Hits Heavy Support Zone — Is the Next Big Crash Coming?

Nov 21, 2025

Recently, Bitcoin(BTCUSDT) experienced another decline of over -10%, largely due to the sudden drop in the S&P 500(SPX). As I mentioned in previous ideas, in recent weeks, Bitcoin and the crypto market, especially Bitcoin, have shown a strong correlation with U.S. indices, particularly the S&P 500. This means that even technically sound analyses for Bitcoin can fail if we don’t consider these external factors, which is quite normal. Therefore, it’s crucial to incorporate all parameters—news, fundamentals, on-chain data, and relevant indices—to get an accurate Bitcoin analysis. This complexity can make things a bit challenging.

Over the past ten days, Bitcoin has swiftly broken through several support levels. Many factors have contributed to Bitcoin’s decline recently, but it’s now approaching a heavy support zone($78,300-$71,280). This zone is crucial because if Bitcoin loses it, we could see even larger declines, affecting altcoins as well. Altcoins, in general, haven’t matched Bitcoin’s gains in recent months, so a significant drop in Bitcoin could lead to severe losses for them. It’s essential to manage your investments carefully and stay alert.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the recent decline suggests that Bitcoin might be in the midst of a five-wave downward, which isn’t positive news. There’s a chance that the heavy support zone($78,300-$71,280) might be breached. However, considering that weekends typically have lower trading volumes, it’s less likely that the support will break in the next couple of days. Still, we must remain vigilant and prepared for any scenario.

In terms of Elliott Waves, it seems Bitcoin has completed its main wave 3, and we might be looking at the completion of the wave 4 over the weekend, with another push towards the heavy support zone($78,300-$71,280) at the start of next week.

Also, the USDT.D%(USDT.D) chart looks bullish, which could not be good news for Bitcoin.

I expect that after a brief rebound, Bitcoin will resume its decline and test the heavy support zone($78,300-$71,280) again.

Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $89,642-$88,079

Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $80,263-$78,131

First Target: $78,523

Second Target: $75,123

Stop Loss(SL): $92,123(Worst)

Points may shift as the market evolves

Note: The S&P 500 also might face downward pressure in the coming days, which could further impact Bitcoin’s support levels. It’s essential to manage your investments carefully and wait for strong reversal signals in higher timeframes. You might miss out on some short-term gains, but it will allow for more confident entries later on.

Note: Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela are escalating day by day. Should these tensions intensify to the point of direct confrontation, it could act as a trigger for another Bitcoin decline. It’s important to keep this in mind.

Note: Additionally, there have been some suspicious transfers involving the Mt. Gox exchange recently. It’s worth monitoring these developments closely.

💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.

📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame.

🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.

✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!

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Nov 23, 2025

Trade active

Long position touched the target, Short Position was activated