After the breaking the main line of the descending price channel , the price could not develop the upward movement. The Inverse Head & Shoulders chart pattern was not realized. We saw a price reversal from the resistance zone at 12000.00 level. Also the market formed a double top chart pattern which belongs to a reversal group of patterns. When the price broke the previous swing low, the double top was confirmed. If we follow this pattern, we should expect the market falling to the zone between 7000.00 level and the uptrend lines. This zone will be able to stop and reverse the market one more time.

We also have to take into consideration one more thing. The bullish divergence on the lower time frame and the reversal candlestick pattern on the daily chart , it should give us more positive. RSI reached the oversold zone and it can give us a good reversal signal. If the close price of this day is not far from the current levels, we’ll get a new bullish candle. We’ll be able to draw a new uptrend line using a new swing low. For further downward movement, the price will have to break this support line. If the price continues the upward movement, we should watch closely for price action at 10000.00 and 12000.00 resistance levels. For confirmation the power of bulls, the price will have to move above these resistance levels. In other way, the unstable market conditions will continue for some time.
Comment: The price bounced from 10000.00 resistance level. For keeping bullish model, the price will have to bounce from the downtrend line or the uptrend line. If the price breaks the uptrend line, we should be ready to see the market falling to 7500.00 level.
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Yes, I still enjoy your analysis on BTC compared to a few because it holds little sentiment and is realistic. You give a sense that the chances of BTC going up hover around 40%-60% with your indicators and trend lines which is how it should be.

I'm personally looking for lower volatility and hopefully some oscillator divergence for a good long signal to decrease risk.
+1 Reply
Is that a gigantic bearish flag that I see in the 2-hour chart?
Is that why btc shorts are skyrocketing at Bitfinex, right now?
@Jolgan, on the 3d it looks like a bull flag
I have a question for @DLavrov, does it matter that you keep your analysis on the poloniex prices, where I could say only a fraction of the trading of BTC happens. Can these analyses be "potentially" more accurate if they were made, say, in bitfinex or bitstamp (always referring to BTC), thank you for sharing analysis with us all the time!
ivan.dubov AgonAliu
@AgonAliu, don't you mind if I'll share my opinion?
many people are using arbitrage strategies (and trading bots), so different markets are just BIG MARKET all together. And generally are the same.

I wonder if @DLavrov is still bullish on BTC in the long term?
DLavrov TOP vspectra
@vspectra, in long long run - I'm bullish. And everyone should be bullish if you believe in crypto
+10 Reply
vspectra DLavrov
@DLavrov, Yeah same here. I wonder how low we'll drop though, wish I sold at 19k lol.
p1ng PRO vspectra
@vspectra, we all wish that xD
+1 Reply
@p1ng, :D gotta think of a new plan next time we hit ATH.
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