A while ago I made an analysis where I warned for a move back towards the lower supports of the bear flag. BTC bounced exactly where I anticipated it to bounce, which is great news for the bulls.
With the FOMC meeting looming, it was time to re-asses our positions and prepare for a move in both directions. A bearish reaction would bring the price back to the lower bounds of the bear flag, a bullish reaction would bring us to the upper bound.
As seen on the charts, the reaction to the FED's interest rate decision has been extremely bullish. This pivot in sentiment might actually be the starting sign for a bullish correctional wave after 8 months of selling.
Ideally, BTC breaks out through the top blue resistance of the bear flag, retests it as support and continues the uptrend. With market conditions still being relatively poor, I'd like to keep the targets close at recent lows.
Be patient and wait for the break-out and retest before considering entering a position.
a shooting star candle has formed in 4h timeframe, so im going for bearish
Clover_trader
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Back down
Gunslinger2005
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shouldnt bear flags break out to the downside if they are actually bear flags
FieryTrading
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@Gunslinger2005 that's indeed true, and was also my assumption in my previous analyses. However, the fed might've caused the bear flag to break out bullish, which is statistically a smaller chance, but still possible.
P_S_trade
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Agree with you, but maybe at next week start growth?
stickybun
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Thanks for the great update. I may be dumb, but I can't wrap my head around this bullish rally. No good news have been released, but bad ones many. My gut tells me this is a fake out. Your chart says otherwise. At the same time, reversing an 8 month long decline should have fundamental positives, right? And as long as the FED keeps trimming the BS sheet and liquidity shrinks, I can't see how this fuels a major rally. What am I missing?
FieryTrading
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@stickybun my chart doesn't necessarily say bullish. Wait for a breakout of the bear flag before thinking longer term bullish.
The market is forward looking, so if the market anticipates that things will be better in 6mo, it will rally now