ssari
Long

BTC next steps\cycles

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
Based on a number of observations, as well as reviewing other peoples materials, assessments, market sentiments, 1 has to admit, no-one really knows and no-one can say, as to what will happen in the next month as its all new and not regulated (susceptible to many elements to sway its trend\prices).

My thoughts are the following and I admit I can be influenced by many factors due to perception rather than fact.

a) We are in over bought conditions and people are not ready to buy at these what is perceived to be high prices, in a short time. We need probably need to see more levels of prices in conjunction with retracements to be able to accept these current prices.
b) Media\market commentary still feel $6000 is possible but also many say its close enough to the top in this run and requires a need for a re-tracement\consolidation period since going this uptrend of really 11 weeks.
b) >Looking at historical trends based on 2105/2016 bottom gives us the perception that the accumulation period should take longer than what we have done, especially inching past the weekly 50 EMA resistance
>RSI is at previous bottom of July 2015 with similarly Weekly 50 and 100 EMA acting as resistance
> NVT at all time high
> c) Weekly 200 EMA looks strong candidate for another level of accumulation and support, which mirrors 2015 period
d) 3 Day trend analysis from 2015 and today, indicates that the Golden cross for the start of the next stage of a bull run is due at least a month from now or more
> e) Many people are looking for another low to go all in, reserving their $$ until they feel the pullback from this current climate is completed
f) We have experience a nice BARR, bump and run reversal and found what i perceived as weak support until it hits 4800 to 5000 range. FYI I do feel 4500 is still possible as like many people. I will reserve my conclusion on this as the charts develop

Apr 26
Trade active: H&S about to form?
Apr 26
Comment:
Apr 27
Trade active: At this point in time, I'm sticking to the prospect that the target is the neck line of 4800 range
Apr 28
Trade active: After further research and learning, I have come across this great tool, fib pitchfork. It gives a guide to where to exit a trend. I have applied this to BTC and with EMA combined with some SMAs, I have this final look as to where we sit in the trend. We are no were near yet to sell out of the trend. If the chart moves beyond the 0.318 (white) range and into the bottom Grey range (between 0.618 and 1), then we can consider the trend is moving away. We are also in the squeeze between the 50, 100 and 200 EMA acting support and resistance. I have also looked at some other indicators such as CCI and Momentum, and these don't really give much of a picture besides we are neutral zone... very similar to the fib. pitchfork. So no decisions can be made at this pig pong stage.
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