The price breaks SMA100 and moves lower to 10000.00 level and the uptrend line. This zone is very important now and the further market movements will depend on price action at the uptrend line. The market found support at 10000.00 level but after bouncing the price could not develop the strong upward movement. In such conditions, the market can continue the sideway movement or try to break the uptrend line and drop to 8000.00 and 5000.00 levels. This period is not good for trading because the market is not stable and more unpredictable. It can be called the period of fake signals and failures. It's the part of any market. Proper money management allows to pass through such periods and then come back in profit zone after the starting of a new trend movement. Don't forget about it!
I think that we should stop talking about 8000...
For past few weeks, every experienced trader and the whole world was talking about price going as low as 8000, however, even with this predictions price could not manage to break down, so if everyone thought that it would go to 8000 and it could not manage it, it means that there are no more sellers, no more bear pressure, i think all it needs now is to gain strength and momentum and it will start going uptrend
catalystcw
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@vakkob, OMW are you serious? People are commenting on what the charts are showing.
The selling pressure is greater than the buying - bear market cycle..!
Not only is 8k an almost certainty, 5k is looking highly probable...
Traders will only stop talking about these levels when the bears disappear and the reversal is in place and we breaking big resistance bands on the uptrend....which for the past 43 days BTC has failed to do.
Sorry if you don’t like chatting analysis - maybe you need to only trade in Bull markets...
vakkob
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@catalystcw, You realize that if selling pressure was really high, price would have already been at 8000, right? Well actually no, you do not realize that.
Bear Market Cycle? No, we are in a consolidation period right now, as i see on the charts bears have already done their best, but they are weak now, they tried many times to get price to 8000 but failed, what do you think that means?
Chart? yes i'm also looking at the chart, i suggest you to also look at it, especially last 2 weeks... What do you see? Well i see that we are in a consolidation period right now after major correction, and the only thing left here is market to stabilize a bit before it gains momentum for upward movement.
@vakkob, You don't take down a 20k giant to 8k in one go, it takes many hits, and takes a lot of time.
vakkob
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@Nidalas, Lmao so it is possible to get 20k giant to 11k in 4 days, but for 8k it takes a lot of time right?
Alright let me tell you guys something.
Yes, what happened in December, was phenomenal and unhealthy, and due to that we are going through major correction right now, but for the past 10 days as you can see on the chart, price moves slowly between 10k and 12k, do you want to know what this means? There is no more Bear Pressure! There Are No More Sellers! Bears did their best for now and could not manage to get price lower than 10.000.
Just Think, who is selling bitcoin -7.16% right now? It is really easy to realize that weak hands are already gone from this market, and whoever is holding through this correction and have not sold yet, will not sell now. The only ones that are selling right now are speculators and day-traders.
So, what should we wait for?
We should wait for momentum to build up, once buyers will gain strength, price will start climbing to previous highs, i can not tell you how fast it will happen because a lot of people lost money during this crash, so market is filtered from weak hands, however, there will be joining new players in the market as soon as media will start publishing that bitcoin -7.16% is on the rise again.
Think about it, In December, once price started going up, bitcoin -7.16% was a mainstream throughout the world, everyone was publishing articles like:
"Bitcoin passed 10k and is not stopping" "Bitcoin to the moon" "Easy way to get rich" "Bitcoin: Dream come true" "Bitcoin on the way to $1 Million".
So yeah, as soon as people saw articles like that, they started buying, even people who had not invested in anything before, have decided to buy some bitcoin -7.16% .
So what happened after the crash?
First of all, many of you are calling it crash, but it actually was a correction, profit taking.
After profit taking and price bouncing a bit down, panic selling had kicked in and domino effect came in play. After that, articles about bitcoin -7.16% changed names from "Bitcoin To the moon" to "Bitcoin crashing" and similar things, negative ones of course, so price came lower.
"Whatever goes up, must come down" and this is exactly what happened to bitcoin -7.16% .
What is going to happen now?
Same circle again, whenever bitcoin -7.16% starts going up, imagine what articles will be like... it will be like "Bitcoin recovered and is back on the road to $1 Million", well, in my opinion it will never reach 1 million but whatever, at least articles will say so... And what's next? New players will join the market... as price will grow, more and more people will join and guess what will happen when the price gets higher than 20k? Shit tone of new players will join as publishers will make bitcoin -7.16% mainstream once again, and we can see price go really high really soon again.
How long will it take? I have absolutely no idea.
Is it possible for bitcoin -7.16% to crash? Yes it is, if the whole market will crash due to some seriously bad news.
However, on the trend right now, i am waiting for early of the February, because if short term uptrend will continue, between 3rd and 9th of February is the moment when has highest possibility to break out from Major downtrend line!
Nidalas
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@vakkob,
yes, and it took only few hours to be back at 16k, and showed up to 17k5 two weeks after this crash
So no, bitcoin was not brought down to 11k in 4 days, but in almost a month
"Lmao" it seems you have no idea what oversold and overbought on decent volume securities is, and spent too much time in the 300k $ marketcap pumping scene
I'm not bearish on btc yet anyway, but what you are saying is not rational thinking, but wishful fanboyism. Your think process can also be used for buyers. Those who did not buy at 9-10k will mostly not buy now either, especially seeing how weak BTC is, breaking uptrends over uptrends
I remember reading the same paragraphs so many times in btc history. Including 1800$ (and made new ATH at lightning speed) and at 650$ in 2014 (2 year bear market)
So leave your emotions out, and trade what you see
vakkob
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@Nidalas,
What about from 17k to 11k? just 10 days right? Just Look at the chart, It came down from 20k to 11k, then retraced to 17k, after that from 17k to 11k then retraced to 13k, after 13k it came down to 10k and after that just consolidation between 10k and 12k... Does not this give you sign that correction is over? If not, what else will? Are you gonna say that correction is over after it breaks 15k? By then everyone will know that correction is over man, the most important thing in trading is to predict before everyone realizes...
I am not thinking emotionally, actually i do not care about bitcoin's price to be honest because i'm a day trader, not a long term investor, what i'm saying is just logical from my perspective. Not only based on charts, but also based on people's psychology, media influence and on top of all that, charts are also telling me the same.
vakkob
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@vakkob,
And also, i'm the last person you can call Fanboy of BTC because a lot of reasons (Actually i think that in long term BTC will slowly degrade due to competitive disadvantage) but i do not want to talk about it now, just do not play that card with me
Nidalas
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@vakkob, Nope, for me that consolidation is still too weak for any bull
However it is indeed possible we will never see below 9k2 again, yes, and only see a medium term wyckoff accumulation pattern
Personally I am a mix of both trader and investor, but I sold around 19k and bought all in at 9202$, before unloading anything that is not a long time investment at 12500 (well, not bitcoin, too slow, but btc prices equivalents). So I don't really care either, but I tell you that it is still looking quite weak in my eyes. Hugging too much the MA's in my tastes
For past few weeks, every experienced trader and the whole world was talking about price going as low as 8000, however, even with this predictions price could not manage to break down, so if everyone thought that it would go to 8000 and it could not manage it, it means that there are no more sellers, no more bear pressure, i think all it needs now is to gain strength and momentum and it will start going uptrend