DLavrov

Bitcoin: Where Is the Bottom? Workable Models for a Trading Plan

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
I want to believe that a downward movement from 65 000$ to 30 000$ couldn't surprise you. I wrote about such a correction in this post when the market was bullish with a new ATH at 65 000$. I hope you could fix at least the part of the profit from the previous crazy bullish cycle and now you stay enough stablecoins and wait for new buying opportunities. Great, let's think together about where we are now and how we can trade in the BTCUSD market.

1. The price reached strong support at 30 000$. For me, it is the 1st bottom. Several times the bears tried to break it and failed every time. The price action at 30 000$ confirmed the strength of this support. So, for us, any reversal and false breakouts setups at 30 000$ become interesting opportunities for buying. I would use the 4h-6h and daily TF for trading.

2. If the price bounces somehow from 30 000$ support and the bulls will be able to develop an upward movement, it will be great! We should be ready to see breakouts above the local downtrend line, MA20, and MA50. It will open the road to 42 000$ strong resistance. For holders, it will be an opportunity to optimize their portfolio and maybe fix some profit. Because there is a chance that the market bounces from 42 000$ and moves back to 30 000$ again. Why it can be like that? MA200 and 42 000$ resistance can be broken only if we have strong and active buyers in the market. How the price has been moving between 30 000$ and 40 000$ during these months, we can't say that we have enough strong and active buyers. That's why I think the reversal from 42 000$ will be possible.

3. And let's talk about the situation when the price breaks 30 000$. Wow! It is the most interesting option! If the price breaks 30 000$ as the 1st bottom, the road to the 2nd bottom and probably to the 3rd will be opened! The breakout below 30 000$ will give us the same situation when the price broke 6000$ and moved to 3000$. In that situation, 6000$ acted as the 1st bottom for many months. But the bulls couldn't develop a new uptrend from that point. The price reached the 2nd bottom at 3000$, we could see the reversal and a new bullish trend after that. Now, the breakout below 30 000$ will be able to activate stop and margin calls of those traders who bought from the support. It will give additional power to the bears.
From my point of view, 20 000$ is the 2nd bottom and the perfect target for the bears. The price at 20 000$ will be good for buying if you are a big player, retail trader, or gambler. If we combine fixing profit from the bearish side and new bullish volume , the market will have everything to bounce from 20 000$ and start a new uptrend.

4. The crazy option, the price breaks 20 000$ and keeps the downward movement. What should we do in this situation? In such a situation, the 3rd bottom will be between 14 000$ and 10 000$. The important market high and 10 000$ round number support look like the perfect 3rd bottom with the best prices for the buyers. I think this bottom will be reached only if we have very strong fundamental news against the crypto market. I would take into consideration such a model, but it is not the main. I think the models above look more realistic and they should become the basis for planning future trades.


I shared with you all my thought for this moment. I have a clear plan for how to trade in the crypto market in spite of the direction. I hope you also have a clear trading plan describing all possible market situations.

I will be grateful if you support my post by smashing the like button.
Also, share your thoughts about the further market movement in the comments below. Do you believe that the price will be able to reach 20 000$, 14 000$, 10 000$?
Comment: It looks like we are going to get a reversal from 30 000$ support and a new attempt to move upward. We just need to wait for the close of this day and how the market will move further during this week. If we get a strong bullish candle, it will be a good bullish signal for the whole crypto market.

Comment: Here is another bullish signal supporting a possible upward movement. I'm talking about a double bullish divergence. It is the strong trend reversal signal from the strong support. Does it mean that the market 100% will move upward? Of course, we can't be sure. But this bullish signal allows traders to open long positions with stops below 30 000$. How the market will move further, we will see during this week. Staying above the support will be good for the bulls as well as a new false breakout below 30 000$. A breakout below the support and staying below will change the local bullish model into the bearish.

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Comments

Oh dear @DLavrov... You are one of the first profiles that i followed back in 2017 when i first created my TradingView accounnt. Its needless to say that every single one of your posts is pure gold.
Thank you for your time sharing your ideas/information with the community.
Keep up the Good Work sir !!! SeemsGood !!
+12 Reply
Da_Dude Da_Dude
Regarding your opinions, if we see a price retracement around 83-86% like we saw previously at 2014 and 2017 bullruns then... Maybe are are heading towards 15-20k bottom imo.
+2 Reply
DLavrov Da_Dude
@Da_Dude, I think it is possible as well. Right now, it is better to wait at least the close price of the daily candle. It will be great to watch for the price action at 30 000$ in order to understand better, in which direction the market is going to move further.
+3 Reply
watchtrend DLavrov
@DLavrov, You are right its always good to wait confirmation trends - we see first confirmation done on 30800 that's good news for BTC in that side.
+1 Reply
@DLavrov, In regards to waiting. I know that nobody knows or can time the market perfectly but would it be wise to wait for BTC to break out of the descending triangle you drew up OR wait to see if it goes lower into the $20ks. I'm curious where buy targets are being placed. I'm personally waiting
Reply
DLavrov cryptomatt31
@cryptomatt31, there are different ways how to enter the market. I like the model scaling in/scaling out. In this model, the 1st possible bullish signal can be used for buying. Other bullish signals, which confirm the upward direction can be used for adding new positions. I don't care if the market reverses, I have a clear plan of what to do in such a situation.
+1 Reply
DLavrov Da_Dude
@Da_Dude, I'm very grateful for your words! It is great motivation for me to continue my work! Thanks a lot for your feedback!
+4 Reply
why i think we could see 10-16k before next rally because Bitcoin has broken 350MA at daily time frame, we may see 41k before extreme dump. that was all. thanks for sharing
+4 Reply
Good read - thanks for sharing.

Everyone is talking about $20k. Everyone - just look up the ideas on tradingview. There is no question, this is a majority opinion. What do we know about majorities making the correct call?

Also the $20k itself, it is a strange one. There is no volume support here. It is often confused the the market top of 2017/18, but in actual fact BTC never reached there.

The next meaningful support from current levels is around $14k. Now that would be extraordinary. Why? It is like saying Bitcoin did not increase in value those past 4 years whilst the M2 supply exploded.

Just letting the idea sink in that Bitoin could be the same price as it was four years ago really does hammer home the nail in the coffin of an asset that was supposed to protect your purchasing power.
+4 Reply