BTC | Bitcoin Stays Bearish Below the Protected High !

Jun 11

📊 Daily Timeframe

On the Daily, #BTC (Bitcoin) was in a complete uptrend until it topped out at $126,255.99. From there, price printed an iCHoCH followed by an iBOS, and then confirmed a full bearish structural shift with an external CHoCH once it lost its protected low. Since then, the daily trend has flipped firmly bearish — printing BOS after BOS to the downside.

Along the way, price retraced twice into supply before continuing lower: first into the FVG / Protected High zone around $96,791, and later into the Order Block (OB) near $83,016 — both rejected cleanly, keeping the bears in full control.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $62,669. The key reference is the Protected High at $96,791 — as long as price holds below it, the downtrend remains fully intact. If price closes a full daily candle below $59,848.64, the protected high relocates down to the OB at $83,016.61, confirming continuation.

From here, two scenarios are in play:

• Scenario A — Direct drop: Price continues straight down to hunt the liquidity resting below at $58,778.36, then the deeper pool at $52,374.00.
• Scenario B — Corrective bounce first: Price retraces up into the Flip Zone (~$72,500 – $74,000, above the 50% Fib at $71,070.60), then resumes the downtrend toward those same lower targets.

⏱️ 1H Timeframe

On the 1H, price has broken its descending channel — but that alone is NOT enough to confirm a move up into the daily zone above. Confirmation only comes if price breaks the 1H Protected High at $64,762.03 with momentum and clean candle closes.

If that happens — that is a clear CHoCH. We then wait for a confirming iBOS (to avoid getting caught in deep retracements), and only then look for longs targeting the daily OB zone above ($80,987 – $83,016).

The alternative — and the move that stays aligned with the dominant trend — is a direct drop lower to sweep both the 1H and daily liquidity resting below.

🎯 The Bias

1. Primary: bearish while price holds below the Protected High ($96,791).
2. A full daily close below $59,848.64 shifts the protected high to $83,016.61 and confirms continuation.
3. Downside liquidity targets: $58,778.36, then $52,374.00.
4. Short-term bullish invalidation: a momentum 1H break and close above $64,762.03 (CHoCH → iBOS) opens a move toward the daily OB.

📰 Fundamental Backdrop
The bearish structure lines up with a heavy macro and on-chain backdrop. Bitcoin has fallen roughly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high near $126,200, pressured by sustained outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (around 13 straight days of net outflows), Strategy's disclosure of its first BTC sale in nearly four years, renewed Mt. Gox wallet-movement concerns, and cascading liquidations — all against a risk-off macro tone of sticky inflation, Fed uncertainty, and a firmer dollar. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently dropped into Extreme Fear. In short, the news flow remains a probable headwind that supports the bearish technical bias.

This analysis will be updated as the market evolves.

If this breakdown added value, drop a like 👍 and a comment 💬 to support the work — and share where you see Bitcoin heading next!

Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳

Jun 15

Note

✅ Update — 1H bullish scenario triggered

BTC reclaimed the 1H Protected High at $64,762 and confirmed a bullish BOS, validating the upside path. Price is now around $66,895 and heading toward the daily Flip Zone ($72,362 – $74,694) as the first objective.

Next upside reference above stays the daily OB region near $80,987. Managing the move accordingly.

Updated 1H chart:
— BigBeluga 🐳