Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/13
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MARKET OVERVIEW
TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES
TRADE SETUPS
Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal.
Long Trade Setup #1: False Breakdown
To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal support and then recover.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price breaks below the low of $30.4K and then rapidly climbs above $30.4K, forming a bear trap
2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakdown candlestick followed by a reclaiming candlestick
3. Volume: Above average volume on both breakdown candle and reclaiming candle
4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out
Short Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (61.8Fib)
To open a short position, we are waiting for price to retrace up to test the 61.8Fib and then continue moving down.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price needs to move back up to the 61.8Fib @ $37.5K and bounce back down.
2. Candlestick Pattern: A bearish candlestick pattern
3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle
4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out
ENTRY SIGNAL TYPES
Trade calls will be separated into two categories, official and unofficial. The reason for the distinction is that official entry calls are only for high probability trade setups whereas unofficial calls might have slightly lower probability of winning but positive net profitability due to high risk reward. As I see a lot of traders, do not practice proper risk management and position sizing, I want to protect them from the second type of trades. At the same time, I know there are more sophisticated traders who can take advantage of both types of calls. So this is the solution that I’ve come up with, which is to separate the two trade types into two types of entry calls. Official entry calls will come with detailed entry, stop loss and take profit levels, whereas unofficial trade entries might or might not and will rely a little bit more on the trader themselves to manage the trade. This is one way to distinguish the more experienced traders from the newer ones. If you are unable to enter an unofficial trade entry without those details, then it means that you shouldn’t be taking those trades and should stick only to the official trades.
1. Official entry calls will be posted using “trading active” post type.
2. Unofficial entry calls are potential good trading opportunities that will be posted using “comments” post type.
ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS
Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management.
TRADE MANAGEMENT
I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal.
Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks.
Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with.
RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING
Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk.
HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS
Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily:
1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself.
2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time.
DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR.
Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following! Thanks!
Please share your ideas and analysis below so we can all learn together!
Also check out my daily post on Ethereum!
MARKET OVERVIEW
- Price Action: After dropping 28% from a high of $42K to a low of $30.4K, BTC rallied 20% to $36.5K where it got rejected by the 200MAs and has since showed continued weakness trading under the 200MAs.
- Chart Patterns: No significantly visible chart patterns.
- Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the 61.8 Fib @ $37.5K and the lows @ $30.4K. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time.
TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES
- 2020/ 01 /11: We had two losing trade! We entered long @ $35.4K SL @ $34.1K, and we hit Stop Loss. We entered long again @ $33.1K SL @ $31.6K, and we again hit stop loss. In hindsight, should have stepped aside from such a major selloff and wait for markets to stabilize before looking for trade entries.
- 2020/ 01 /08: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $37997 SL @ 36760, price reached a high of $41950, giving us a risk reward ratio of 3:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 3BTC.
- 2020/ 01 /03: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $33380, SL @ 32.8K, price reached a high of $33.8K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 1:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 1BTC. While this has been our smallest win so far following our biggest win, a win is a win. Always secure profits and protect your capital.
TRADE SETUPS
Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal.
Long Trade Setup #1: False Breakdown
To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal support and then recover.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price breaks below the low of $30.4K and then rapidly climbs above $30.4K, forming a bear trap
2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakdown candlestick followed by a reclaiming candlestick
3. Volume: Above average volume on both breakdown candle and reclaiming candle
4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out
Short Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (61.8Fib)
To open a short position, we are waiting for price to retrace up to test the 61.8Fib and then continue moving down.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price needs to move back up to the 61.8Fib @ $37.5K and bounce back down.
2. Candlestick Pattern: A bearish candlestick pattern
3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle
4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out
ENTRY SIGNAL TYPES
Trade calls will be separated into two categories, official and unofficial. The reason for the distinction is that official entry calls are only for high probability trade setups whereas unofficial calls might have slightly lower probability of winning but positive net profitability due to high risk reward. As I see a lot of traders, do not practice proper risk management and position sizing, I want to protect them from the second type of trades. At the same time, I know there are more sophisticated traders who can take advantage of both types of calls. So this is the solution that I’ve come up with, which is to separate the two trade types into two types of entry calls. Official entry calls will come with detailed entry, stop loss and take profit levels, whereas unofficial trade entries might or might not and will rely a little bit more on the trader themselves to manage the trade. This is one way to distinguish the more experienced traders from the newer ones. If you are unable to enter an unofficial trade entry without those details, then it means that you shouldn’t be taking those trades and should stick only to the official trades.
1. Official entry calls will be posted using “trading active” post type.
2. Unofficial entry calls are potential good trading opportunities that will be posted using “comments” post type.
ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS
Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management.
TRADE MANAGEMENT
I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal.
Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks.
Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with.
RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING
Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk.
HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS
Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily:
1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself.
2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time.
DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR.
Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following! Thanks!
Please share your ideas and analysis below so we can all learn together!
