🐻 Bears Are Gaining Strength in Bitcoin: Why Is Below 80K a Deep Hole?
The correction since ATH continues and 80K has been tested for the 2nd time!
The 80K level is not just a psychological support, but also a point where critical technical and on-chain data intersect. So what happens if this level breaks? Let's take a look together.
📊 What Are Technical Indicators Saying?
Bitcoin is currently struggling to hold above multiple critical supports. The 80K Fibonacci support (short-term) is being tested for the second time and support strength weakens with each test. There's a 50-day SMA at 89.5K but price is currently moving below it, showing that the short-term trend is weakening.
FRVP VAL (Volume-at-Level) is positioned at 87.5K. If it stays in this area, it could become the POC and this would give serious strength to bears. There's a 111-day DMA at 95K and a 365-day SMA at 100K, meaning long-term trends are also in danger. The 103K Fibonacci pivot is the critical resistance that needs to be broken in the short term.
⛓️ On-Chain Data Is Even More Grim
80K is not just a technical level, it's also the Spot ETF cost basis. In other words, institutional investors' average purchase price is here. At 97K there's the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH RP), meaning short-term investors are trying to break even. True Market Mean is also around 80K, showing that the market's real average price is here.
Looking deeper, we see Binance Reserve Cost at 62K. If 80K breaks, this could be the next serious support. This level is a very critical zone both technically and on-chain.
🎯 Scenarios: What to Expect?
🐻 Bearish Scenario (High Probability)
If a weekly close occurs below 80K, bears could gain more strength than ever. In this case, Fibonacci levels could see price movement sequentially to 68K and then 62K. Volume profile is also concentrated at these levels, so liquidity could accumulate there.
🐂 Bullish Scenario
If it catches momentum from here, the first important threshold could be the 90K level. Then the SMA111 at 95K should be watched because breaking this level is essential for a mid-term trend reversal.
If the psychological resistance of 100K is also broken, the trend could reverse.
⚠️ Critical Warning
This week, the 80K level could determine Bitcoin's fate.
It's no coincidence that Spot ETF cost basis, True Market Mean, and Fibonacci supports are at the same point. Bears are currently in control and momentum is with them.
Key level to watch: 80K weekly close
💬 What Do You Think Will Happen?
1. Will Bitcoin close below 80K?
2. Are 68K and 62K realistic targets?
3. Or will we see a surprise recovery from here?
Share your thoughts in the comments! 🙏
The correction since ATH continues and 80K has been tested for the 2nd time!
The 80K level is not just a psychological support, but also a point where critical technical and on-chain data intersect. So what happens if this level breaks? Let's take a look together.
📊 What Are Technical Indicators Saying?
Bitcoin is currently struggling to hold above multiple critical supports. The 80K Fibonacci support (short-term) is being tested for the second time and support strength weakens with each test. There's a 50-day SMA at 89.5K but price is currently moving below it, showing that the short-term trend is weakening.
FRVP VAL (Volume-at-Level) is positioned at 87.5K. If it stays in this area, it could become the POC and this would give serious strength to bears. There's a 111-day DMA at 95K and a 365-day SMA at 100K, meaning long-term trends are also in danger. The 103K Fibonacci pivot is the critical resistance that needs to be broken in the short term.
⛓️ On-Chain Data Is Even More Grim
80K is not just a technical level, it's also the Spot ETF cost basis. In other words, institutional investors' average purchase price is here. At 97K there's the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH RP), meaning short-term investors are trying to break even. True Market Mean is also around 80K, showing that the market's real average price is here.
Looking deeper, we see Binance Reserve Cost at 62K. If 80K breaks, this could be the next serious support. This level is a very critical zone both technically and on-chain.
🎯 Scenarios: What to Expect?
🐻 Bearish Scenario (High Probability)
If a weekly close occurs below 80K, bears could gain more strength than ever. In this case, Fibonacci levels could see price movement sequentially to 68K and then 62K. Volume profile is also concentrated at these levels, so liquidity could accumulate there.
🐂 Bullish Scenario
If it catches momentum from here, the first important threshold could be the 90K level. Then the SMA111 at 95K should be watched because breaking this level is essential for a mid-term trend reversal.
If the psychological resistance of 100K is also broken, the trend could reverse.
⚠️ Critical Warning
This week, the 80K level could determine Bitcoin's fate.
It's no coincidence that Spot ETF cost basis, True Market Mean, and Fibonacci supports are at the same point. Bears are currently in control and momentum is with them.
Key level to watch: 80K weekly close
💬 What Do You Think Will Happen?
1. Will Bitcoin close below 80K?
2. Are 68K and 62K realistic targets?
3. Or will we see a surprise recovery from here?
Share your thoughts in the comments! 🙏
SPK lisanslı Midas ile ABD borsaları, BIST ve TEFAS fonlarına tek platformdan, masrafsız yatırıma başla!
app.getmidas.com/gmih/xuyw9hdp
app.getmidas.com/gmih/xuyw9hdp
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
SPK lisanslı Midas ile ABD borsaları, BIST ve TEFAS fonlarına tek platformdan, masrafsız yatırıma başla!
app.getmidas.com/gmih/xuyw9hdp
app.getmidas.com/gmih/xuyw9hdp
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.