Prothius187

Consolidation but patience needed

POLONIEX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether USD
We're starting to see consolidation waves in bitcoin price, but we need to see if the $8K range can hold or not. There is risk here in that if $8K support is broken, the next support is closer to $4K. If you're holding, then watch the next few weeks to see how things develop. If you're not in the trade yet, then wait to see if BTC continues to support itself and buy the breakout. It's not on my chart, but the 200DMA is currently at around $7600. If the 200DMA is broken, there is a strong likelyhood we will continue to fall <$6K until support is found closer to $4K. This would show structural weakness in the price, and thus patience is needed right now to ensure support is held.
Mar 18
Comment: Bitcoin has clearly broken through the $7800-$8000 range and there is a very real possibility that this will push to $6K and possibly below towards $4K.
Mar 18
Comment: We've had a nice surge after pushing towards $7300 and we are back in trend. Again, need to give this some time and patience over this week to ensure a clear short term trend shows. The lack of clear direction is a danger signal, so don't make rash moves while we wait to see what the true trend is.
Mar 18
Comment:
Mar 19
Comment: We just reached $8600 which is bullish in the short term, but we would need to see a return to $10k to continue our consolidation pattern. This week and next will be key in deciding if BTC is going to continue consolidation towards breakout or if we will have another push under $7800, which would be extremely bearish. I had a comment from a friend about it dropping out of the triangle a few days ago. Please remember that any price can be manipulated short term by large whales or groups of individuals, so a single push through a trend line is meaningless. What we're looking for at this point is that there should be continued bullishness after such a round of selling, otherwise the sellers probably still have control, which is not a good signal. People buy and sell in herd behavior, so when lots of sellers appear, many sellers will join them. Once the sellers are exhausted, then buyers take-over and we should see the buyers pushing back against the sellers. If this doesn't happen, there may be structural weakness on the buy side, which is a very bearish sign. Look for the overall behaviors over time an don't get stuck on any single point of data.
Mar 30
Comment: We're out of the pattern and it looks like we're headed to revisit $6000. Watch for support on the way down. If we pass through $6000, then $4k becomes a real possibility once again. As I mentioned before, the price is still far too unstable. Patience to see when we get a new bullish trend and don't listen to the FUD...

Apr 01
Comment: Still showing a downtrend and waiting to see if any of the local supports hold. We have 2 local supports at 6700 and 6000. I've marked them with a blue line. If either of these support holds then we will likely break the downtrend and return to our uptrend. If not, then we are continuing our downtrend which we will need to watch for signs of support on the way down. There are old supports, but like I've said before there is danger here and you must be cautious until a new trend appears.

Apr 04
Comment: So far we haven't been to $6K, which is positive, but the more recent downtrend since Mar is still in play, and I'm seeing oversold indicators at this point. It's bullish that $6700 has held so far. I've updated the pattern I'm watching. We should know soon if we're moving toward $6K or if we are potentially trying to reverse the longer downtrend from December.

Apr 11
Comment: $6600 - $6700 held through selling pressure which is bullish, but we still need to break the March local trend. If it does break, we may be actually in a very large consolidation, and I've expanded the triangle, which happens with bitcoin. Look at the new trend and wave counts. If we break soon through the March downtrend, then we are likely to continue consolidating. If we break below, then we are likely in for a large drop toward $5K and $4K. We should know soon either way.

Apr 13
Comment: Well we had a very nice surge with BTC price to finally break the March downtrend. I'm looking at the counts continuing, and the surge volume confirming a short term trend reversal. Expect heavy resistance near $9K, but we still have the larger downtrend from Jan. As we near $8500 - $9000 I expect a pull back before finishing our counts to continue back over $10K and a return to bitcoin's bull market.

Apr 17
Comment: We're still driving towards completing the next wave count. I suspect soon we may be in for a drop in price before we continue the bull run. There is still risk as we have not yet broken out of the larger bear trend from December. Patience is still needed while we monitor what happens soon. If we strongly break out of this triangle before pulling back, then all bets are off as the bull will have returned in full force.

Apr 23
Comment: BTC price has broken out of the downtrend channel from Dec, but movement has been stopped at $9k and we're seeing it hovering. Monitoring price right now on whether we're going to surge through $9k or if we're going to return back into the downtrend. We would need to see a strong break of $10k before signaling a strong return to the uptrend, so patience still needed here until the true trend become clear.

Apr 24
Comment: Well, we know the direction as btc has surged out of its Dec downtrend. I've been monitoring over this week and the new upward trend is continuing, but we're about to hit major resistance as two pivot points stand at $10K - $10.5K. If you're already in the game, then HODL as usual, but if you're waiting for an entry, then buy the breakout from $10.5K or if there is a pullback from this point, buy the dip. Remain patient at this junction, because until we get a strong break of $10K, there is still risk of a strong pull-back.

May 24
Comment: I've redone the wave counts by removing the $20k peak and instead on the consolidation of the following waves. The counts look good and we may be nearing the end of our bear run finally with bitcoin. Monitor closely. If you followed previous advice of buying the dips, then you're already in this play. If you're still sitting out, now would be the time to buy. Set stops just below at $6500 where our C count bottomed.

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