Using Pitchfork which is based on the laws of physics and Elliott Wave I'm getting to a confluence of 141k by cycle-end... my analysis tells me this happens by year-end but Elliott Wave is saying February 2022.... so keep an eye out for a range b/w year-end and Feb 2022.
This is just a preliminary chart - it is likely to change but at least it is indicative of where price may head in Wave 5. Also, the pitchfork connecting the major swing high of Wave 1 to Swing Low of Wave 2 produces a beautiful confluence of Wave 3's top and potentially Wave 5's top.
You can see if the low of 29K is the bottom this will form a rising wedge pattern which can be a reversal pattern as it funnels to the apex - this would again be confluence of a top and then a real bear market where most coins just die off and btc has a 70-80% correction that last years.
@neofx11, you better start exiting earlier and base it on cycle top indicators at least, cause we might never hit that high. Upper logarithmic curve shows top at around 120-130k.
@Mikanoshi, Yup - this should be looked at as a risk indicator - getting into that top band would likely coincide with topping indicators - s2f has a high into the $300-400k range ... I'm not waiting to sell then but I wouldn't sell 100% either, would always have some exposure in case there is a major market moving event that gets us to 400k.... it is possible in this cycle with the advent of institutional money that is still largely not in but gaining access.
However, with that said - using 2 different tools creates confluence of a price top. The pitchfork predicted the April/May highs perfectly. It's not coincidence but confluence. But of course, if the bull market is a couple months shorter, then 123k would be the top according to this indicator.
We’re often right there you and I