1. I expect at least, retest of Historical Trend line 2. We are at the moment in a rising wedge. 3. I expect test of 200 MA for bullish momentum confirmation 4. On rising wedge we are in process to start Wave E downside, based on Eliot Waves theory.
Occasion or not, all the above tests / retests, are passing from 9600 - 9800 area. A reversal from this area into the upside it will confirm for me bull market and a real break of historical trend line. In the opposite case, we will confirm a fake out and a lower price is expected. If the above range will not keep this is equal to a break of rising wedge downside. The target in this case is somewhere near 4000. A Fibonacci historical golden pocket around 6500 can give support and reversal too.
A thought why i continue not to trust the market and im more bearish than bullish :
Three years, big money, are waiting break of trend line, to go all in. We break finally the trend, but price is just several hundreds above trend. If big money where waiting this signal, bitcoin were need to be at least 20k now. Resuming: 1. No demand at this price 2. Big money wait the above retest for confirmation of break out if is real or not. 3. Big money demands lower price.
Because mostly people are bullish i would like to say the following : Guys nobody press you to follow my opinion. In any case is not a financial advice, but just my personal view. And as i said and in my previous post, Is my fault if at the end i am mistaken.