Traders,
From the current levels around $112.8K–$113K, I believe Bitcoin is setting up for another leg down into the $104K region.
Why? Because at current levels we already have multiple Anchored VWAPs (AVWAPs) lining up from different swing high → low auctions, which makes this area heavy resistance.
That means the probability of retracing higher is limited, and instead, the market is more likely to drop into $104K — where there’s significant unfinished business — before a proper bounce can occur.
🔮 Hypothesis
📊 Data & Confluence
🔻 Why $104K Is a Magnet
🔼 Why Current Levels Won’t Hold
💵 Macro Flows
📌 My Take
Bitcoin is most likely to:
⚠️ If $104K fails to hold, next target is the imbalance zone around $98.5K.
✅ Conclusion
The market is loaded with resistance at current levels. Until that’s broken with conviction, the path of least resistance is down into $104K.
That’s where the real battle will be.
Trade safe, manage risk, and don’t get trapped on the wrong side of the wick.
From the current levels around $112.8K–$113K, I believe Bitcoin is setting up for another leg down into the $104K region.
Why? Because at current levels we already have multiple Anchored VWAPs (AVWAPs) lining up from different swing high → low auctions, which makes this area heavy resistance.
That means the probability of retracing higher is limited, and instead, the market is more likely to drop into $104K — where there’s significant unfinished business — before a proper bounce can occur.
🔮 Hypothesis
- From current levels ($112.8K–$113K), price will reject and move down toward $104K.
- Retracement higher than $113K is unlikely given AVWAP confluence + resistance stack.
- The $104K region will act as a bounce zone, potentially with a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) wick.
📊 Data & Confluence
🔻 Why $104K Is a Magnet
- HTF Point of Control (POC): The high-volume node where markets naturally seek equilibrium.
- HTF AVWAP: Anchored VWAP from major pivots aligns here, marking fair value.
- 4H TPO Single Prints + Fib Retracements (0.75–0.786): Gaps in auction structure converge with key Fibonacci levels.
- CME Gap: The $104K CME RTH gap still needs filling — markets often return here for balance.
- Sept 1st Low (Weekly TPO): Poor excess signals unfinished auction business, pulling price back down.
🔼 Why Current Levels Won’t Hold
- Clustered AVWAPs (different swing high → low auctions): Acting as strong dynamic resistance.
- Multiple POCs at current zone: Volume saturation suggests exhaustion.
- Fibonacci confluence + harmonic pattern: Pointing to lower continuation.
💵 Macro Flows
- USDT Dominance (USDT.D): Breaking higher → capital shifting to stablecoins → bearish BTC.
- Aggregated CVD: Spot CVD drifting slightly higher, but futures CVD flat with no OI expansion.
- → No real demand behind the move.
📌 My Take
Bitcoin is most likely to:
- Reject from current AVWAP resistance ($112.8K–$113K).
- Drop into $104K, clearing imbalances and luring in shorts below the 0.786 fib.
- Trigger a wick/squeeze move up (Swing Failure Pattern) to trap those late shorters.
⚠️ If $104K fails to hold, next target is the imbalance zone around $98.5K.
✅ Conclusion
The market is loaded with resistance at current levels. Until that’s broken with conviction, the path of least resistance is down into $104K.
That’s where the real battle will be.
Trade safe, manage risk, and don’t get trapped on the wrong side of the wick.
Trade active
Trade hit the top end of our PRZ Potential Reversal Zone. We have also closed the CME RTH Gap here.
The probability of a down move is now very high!
Note
We also have a lot of Top Longers coming in on Binance, ByBit and OkEx. If price declines, we have extra downside fuel since they're all getting squeezed. Note
Another probability is that the market sweeps the bad local high at 24 sept, before it reverses. We also have some Imbalance there. Note
SFP as described in the note above is in play.
Note
Still bearish. But I believe we will take out the single print above and wick around $115.225 before going back down. 
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.