I wanted to give you all my honest opinion on this move, and how i feel about what is happening right now.
This is an inversed chart on btc, inversed to make this as clear as possible.
From the highs of 64k, we saw 5 waves down - with the last wave seeing a truncation.
5 waves down is not a correction, it is an impulse.
Corrections generally move in 3 waves (5-3-5) 1-2-3-4-5(A) - a-b-c(B) - 1-2-3-4-5(C) (some corrections are more complex than others, but after a 5 wave move down, we can eliminate every other type of correction except the simple 5-3-5) (A)'s have 5 waves within them, so do wave (C)'s.
Which leads me to believe despite how things may look and seem these last few weeks, is we are still in a much larger correction.
Wave 4 corrections take the longest time to play out, and are the most psychologically advanced moves in the markets.
We are in a large Wave 4 correction from my perspective, and this will take time to play out. Could take weeks to months to a year to fully complete.
Take full advantage of this move up, hodl the alts which will run hundreds to thousands of percent in the meantime - but just keep this idea in the back of your mind, and remember - that this larger correction has not yet been completed.
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These are my four targets for for this second corrective phase (Wave B)
Extended wave B moves are not uncommon, and they happen all the time - they push to the absolute extremes, sometimes even make a new all time high before the final drop which is usually the most parabolic move in any market.
One of these targets will reject and btc will drop to the low 20k's before the big Wave (5) begins. (it is impossible to know which one of these will be The target, but i have a few ideas using some other data points)
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Take a look at the 1 year chart on the Fear \ Greed Index for btc; notice how when btc tops out, the greed index starts to consolidate \ move sideways before a massive drop down. This is what I'm looking at daily, and will continue to do so until i see this consolidation take place - once it does it will semi confirm a top, and we could better anticipate the closest target to us.
Also take a look at the 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap, Notice the how btc's heatmap turned blue recently, which triggered this strong move up. Historically - during a correction, whenever it turns blue that is when a dead cat bounce occurs, before the deeper dive to touch the 200 week moving average.
Ps. I will conclude this by saying: this is just my own personal opinion, from my own experience with corrections in the various markets out there. I have seen tens of thousands of them in my journey, and I feel fairly confident when identifying one. I am not bearish, in fact I am extremely bullish on btc in the long term. I think once this correction is completed, our final fifth wave on the highest degree will go anywhere between the hundred thousands all the way into the millions.
@orehman03, 22k, but we don't know how high this move extends - could get all the way back up near ath's
eenmakkie
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thanks for the count.
I can't find a count how you placed that ((3)) there.
yes it is the III wave or what ever degree you use,
but the III wave is one earlier. just make the complete cont from the march 202 low with all internal counts.
then you have a FLAT ABC with just a small high and then a (W) (X) (Y) with the (Y) internal an ABCDE diagonal .
one thing is not sure is is this all is the (B) wave or the IV or IV has ended.
unbeldi
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Isn't it self-evident that this is all nonsense? The fifth wave is not truncated, because it is clearly not a fifth wave. It has a three-wave structure, which you just painted over without consideration. And if it isn't a fifth wave the whole assignment is wrong. Furthermore, with the B wave reaching that high, you seem to want to imply a flat, probably an expanding flat to reach further down into the bottom. It clearly cannot be a zig-zag. But the A-wave of a flat is not a five-way structure, but has to consist of three waves. So, the assignments make no sense, and therefore the "analysis" doesn't either.
Truncated fifth occur when the third wave was exceptionally strong in established trends, when the trend is exhausted. But the third wave has no signs of being particularly strong, and there was certainly no trend that could exhaust energy. A single wave down from the top does make a trend.
Eloquent
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@unbeldi, despite how you want to label these assignments, my point behind this post is we are nearing a hard top. we're flashing a 3 day algorithmic sell signal as of last night for the first time since 64k
sell signals on every single timeframe as of this moment between 1h~3day. wait until the larger ones pop off
google "bitcoin heatmap" and look at the 200 weekly moving average chart, i think you might like what you see.
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everyone expects all time highs, that is precisely why we aren't going to see them yet. you of all people should be on board with that :p
what would ralph nelson elliott say right now?
unbeldi
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@Eloquent, You're just digging yourself deeper into trouble with EWT. WXY's are more or less horizontal corrections, should never be used to cover up mistakes.