Bitcoin, 5 Reasons I think we're going down.
First off I would like to say that these are my IDEAS, aka my thoughts, plans or suggestions about what to do. We can all learn from each others ideas. Nobody knows exactly what will happen next in the markets. So instead of being disrespectful to others ideas, let's use these to gain more knowledge and spark new ideas between each other. We all want to make money here right? We can't learn how to win unless we take some L's, which I'm sure we all do. I am fairly new to trading and have learned a lot from taking L's and also from ideas that are posted here. With that being said, here are my thoughts about the current situation in the Bitcoin world. I could be wrong, but you can take the information I am providing and add see how it may correlate with your ideas.
I believe we are going down, and these are my reasons:
1. Coronavirus Phase 2..self explanatory
2. 3 Gorges Dam flooding in China. If you haven't heard the news about the tragic situation with the 3 Gorges Dam flooding, you might want to take a look. Why will this effect the Bitcoin/Crypto world? Not only will this have a very large impact on China's overall economy, amongst many other factors going on, it will have a very large impact on Bitcoin Miners. Sichuan, China is home to largest concentration of Bitcoin mining operations, estimated 50% of the worlds Bitcoin mining capacity. Since the flooding has started Bitcoin's hashrate has been dropping significantly. The last time it flooded (July 2019), the global hashrate dropped 30% in one week.
3. I believe we are in a Distribution Phase, which started in June 2019. If you look at the chart, we are beginning phase D. If we continue to follow the wyckoff schematic, we should be dropping to Target 2 during phase D, and if we continue to follow we will go to Target 3 in Phase E. However, I believe we could go on a good bullrun after we hit Target 2, I'll explain why in #5.
4. We have been following bits and pieces of fractals from June 2019-July 2019. If you want to go back and look at the hourly chart, we are currently at around July 9, 2019, which means we could possibly have another small drop, and one more pump, then continue the downtrend. I know these fractals can't be followed forever, but they have done well for me so far. It just takes a good eye to know which points we are at.
5. Wedges and Bear Flag. I have traced out a couple of different wedges and a bear flag on the chart, with their measurements, and their target measurements. As you can see the rising wedge formed in 2019 hit the Target 3 in March 2020. I believe because of the coronavirus we went a little past the target. The target for the current rising wedge we have recently broken out of should be around Target 3 as well, which I don't think we'll make it to. I may have drawn the bottom the trend line a little off, but I don't think it makes that big of a difference. It actually is very similar to the breakout of the rising wedge from the fractal in 2019. We are currently in a bear flag, which I think we should break out of by this Sunday, I am predicting it should hit Target 1. If we have a small pump it can turn into a broadening rising wedge. Last but not least we are in a Right-Angled Broadening and Descending wedge, which is outlined in the purple. The next target for this wedge is Target 2. I think we will go on a bullrun after hitting this target. That will pretty much be the last phase before we move to a breakout, it will have also formed a inverse head and should pattern. To calculate the target for the this wedge, you subtract lowest point from the highest point, multiply it by .63, then add it to the breakout line. This calculation measures up well to the target of the inverse head and shoulders, if you don't account for the Coronavirus overselling. This is not a very strong breakout pattern so another drop could happen once it reaches it's target.
These are my 5 reasons we are going down. Hopefully we didn't go on a bullrun as typed this out.
Here are some links I used to help with my idea.
medium.com/@halotrad...ematics-c4215a4008bd - Wyckoff Schematics, I believe we are following Distribution Schematic #1 (Currently in phase D)
thepatternsite.com/rabfd.html - right angled broadening descending wedge
www.finvids.com/Char...ning-Wedge-Asc-Desc/ - right angled broadening descending wedge
medium.com/@je_12591...trading-71febc1f5bec - trading patterns
I believe we are going down, and these are my reasons:
1. Coronavirus Phase 2..self explanatory
2. 3 Gorges Dam flooding in China. If you haven't heard the news about the tragic situation with the 3 Gorges Dam flooding, you might want to take a look. Why will this effect the Bitcoin/Crypto world? Not only will this have a very large impact on China's overall economy, amongst many other factors going on, it will have a very large impact on Bitcoin Miners. Sichuan, China is home to largest concentration of Bitcoin mining operations, estimated 50% of the worlds Bitcoin mining capacity. Since the flooding has started Bitcoin's hashrate has been dropping significantly. The last time it flooded (July 2019), the global hashrate dropped 30% in one week.
3. I believe we are in a Distribution Phase, which started in June 2019. If you look at the chart, we are beginning phase D. If we continue to follow the wyckoff schematic, we should be dropping to Target 2 during phase D, and if we continue to follow we will go to Target 3 in Phase E. However, I believe we could go on a good bullrun after we hit Target 2, I'll explain why in #5.
4. We have been following bits and pieces of fractals from June 2019-July 2019. If you want to go back and look at the hourly chart, we are currently at around July 9, 2019, which means we could possibly have another small drop, and one more pump, then continue the downtrend. I know these fractals can't be followed forever, but they have done well for me so far. It just takes a good eye to know which points we are at.
5. Wedges and Bear Flag. I have traced out a couple of different wedges and a bear flag on the chart, with their measurements, and their target measurements. As you can see the rising wedge formed in 2019 hit the Target 3 in March 2020. I believe because of the coronavirus we went a little past the target. The target for the current rising wedge we have recently broken out of should be around Target 3 as well, which I don't think we'll make it to. I may have drawn the bottom the trend line a little off, but I don't think it makes that big of a difference. It actually is very similar to the breakout of the rising wedge from the fractal in 2019. We are currently in a bear flag, which I think we should break out of by this Sunday, I am predicting it should hit Target 1. If we have a small pump it can turn into a broadening rising wedge. Last but not least we are in a Right-Angled Broadening and Descending wedge, which is outlined in the purple. The next target for this wedge is Target 2. I think we will go on a bullrun after hitting this target. That will pretty much be the last phase before we move to a breakout, it will have also formed a inverse head and should pattern. To calculate the target for the this wedge, you subtract lowest point from the highest point, multiply it by .63, then add it to the breakout line. This calculation measures up well to the target of the inverse head and shoulders, if you don't account for the Coronavirus overselling. This is not a very strong breakout pattern so another drop could happen once it reaches it's target.
These are my 5 reasons we are going down. Hopefully we didn't go on a bullrun as typed this out.
Here are some links I used to help with my idea.
medium.com/@halotrad...ematics-c4215a4008bd - Wyckoff Schematics, I believe we are following Distribution Schematic #1 (Currently in phase D)
thepatternsite.com/rabfd.html - right angled broadening descending wedge
www.finvids.com/Char...ning-Wedge-Asc-Desc/ - right angled broadening descending wedge
medium.com/@je_12591...trading-71febc1f5bec - trading patterns