As a follow on from my analysis on the 4hour chart where we said BTC could fail it's rally upwards if it breaks certain indicators, we can clearly see these were broken and BTC bounced off support but only to drop like a stone again. (refer to previous analysis).
Having 60million USDT minted plus the largest exchange on the planet mysteriously closing trading for hours on end was a perfect storm for the whale cartel to dump the prices across the board on unsuspecting retail investors who had no access to their Binance trading accounts. Flushed out and 100+million in liquidations.
On this daily chart I am using for this Bitcoin analysis we have some interesting technical factors to look at.
The green dotted up arrows indicate where BTC rallied in bull mode to go upwards in price. During these runs, BTC traded above the MA 21 except where shown by the down arrows and rectangular boxes.
The yellow rectangular box (where red down arrow is) shows when BTC moved down to the EMA 34 (in pink) and then bounced off this indicator to continue on it's run upwards. The EMA 10 (in blue) crossed under the MA 21 (in orange) but didn't cross under the EMA 34.
The green rectangular boxes (where green down arrows are) shows where BTC moved down to the EMA 34 (in pink) and then bounced off this indicator to continue on it's run upwards. The EMA 10 did not cross under the MA 21 or the EMA 34.
The blue rectangular box (where the grey down arrow is) is where BTC is currently trading at. For now, BTC moved down to test the EMA 34 (in pink). The EMA 10 has not yet crossed under the MA 21 or under the EMA 34.
If BTC breaks and trades below the EMA 34, then rally is done and dusted. If EMA 10 (in blue) crosses under the EMA 34 (in pink), rally is done and dusted. If this occurs I expect a massive sell off as the huge position of longs in the market will want to exit asap reducing the BTC price dramatically.
If EMA 10 crosses under MA 21 but not the EMA 34 and BTC also holds the EMA 34 without closing a candle underneath it 2 days in a row, then the rally may continue as per previous rally's (dotted green up arrows).
Let's see what the whale cartel do next. More than likely now people are shorting, a pump back up then another dump should liquidate another 100million or so for the cartel.
I still have a long position open and will add to it at $9250 and $9430. Should BTC move to a bearish scenario as per the terms explained above in italic, I will have no option but to close the long I opened back in early January.
Happy trading legends!
HTBB
Trade closed manually
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If BTC breaks and trades below the EMA 34, then rally is done and dusted. Trade closed at $9500 after this happened. Made a profit which is all you can ask for really. Looks like the bull run is over, time to put the bear hat back on. 0.618 bear cycle back in full effect all over again.
Comment
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This chart will tell us if we in full bear mode again long term or if this is just a very steep pullback. Looking quite bearish with 2 10million shorts opened 2 days ago on Bitmex, the longs at Bitfinex dropping as shown here: However, if the 2 whales above at Bitmex close their shorts, the price could jump upwards in a heartbeat. Whales will buy up BTC first at the low prices or open a long on another account or platform, then close their short. Time will tell if this halving will react like the other 2.
Good analysis! Correct me if I'm wrong guys - the Longs on Bitfinex are the number of positions not necessarily size of positions? If that's correct, then a reduction in number can represent small traders being flushed out while whales hold. As we see BTC price rise over time the distribution of BTC holders should go up (more people holding less BTC), which also means a healthy level of Longs should steadily go up too.
AspiringPro
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Fucking nailed it lad. Thank you for the brilliant take!
prefabsprout
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we pierced the pink.
Pro_Trader_HTBB
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@prefabsprout, I am talking about BTC closing the price above or below any EMA, MA, fib level etc twice in a row for confirmation of which way markets will move. You don't always get the trade opened at the top if shorting or the bottom if going long but I aim for the meat in the middle as it eliminates a lot of risk.
Sometimes you can tell after one closing candle above or below but just use a tight stop loss if opening a trade then.
prefabsprout
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@HowToBuyBitcoindotnetdotau, isn't piercing frequently a harbinger of things to come?
Pro_Trader_HTBB
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@prefabsprout, depends on the circumstances. If you look at any chart and drew a trend line on an up trend for example, you will see it pierced many times on the way up. Price still went up yet pierced the trendline many times so when you do sell and/or go short? Could cost you a bit of money waiting for the piercing to finally penetrate, don't you think?
Best to wait for a candle or 2 to close in my opinion.
Pro_Trader_HTBB
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@prefabsprout, for example on this exact chart the first green down arrow back in 2017 shows where on an uptrend BTC closed 1 candle under the EMA 34, next day it closed back above and then rallied another 200% or more. This is why the 2 closes is perfect imo.