BINANCE:BTCUSDT Hello everyone 😃 Before we start to discuss, I would be glad if you share your opinion on this post's comment section and hit the like button if you enjoyed it !
#BTC has reached $35500 and we warned about the drop earlier... Now it's time to discuss about our possible bottom.
With five factors I believe that it's the time to fill our bags and get ready for any early rally around 15th February. - Reaching into liquidity pool where that institutional buyers make their moves and start catching the bottom. 📌 We had the same fractal on 22nd June, We had a huge buying volume into only 3 addresses ! - Untouched NPOCs standing at $43800 on daily timeframe which are needs to be swept before any major leg-down below $29000. 📌 POCs have much similarities like CME's gaps; 94.6% of them get swept... - Reaching FIB's 12.5% level, Which can act as an potential support in HTF's range zone. 📌 There's a located range from $64887 (April's high) to $29150 (May's low); You can that FIB levels shows the impact into Mid-term movements : - Reaching into Bitcoin production cost price's cloud, Which was a historically great zone to add your bids for long-term run. 📌 Production cost price is a root value of the product. (I'll talk about it more and further in below contents) - Forming bullish CME's gap into weekend; It'll resulted into bullish reversal pivot to fill the gap. 📌 Just like the POCs I mentioned above; 87.8% of gaps get filled...
📚 Let's have dipper talks into data and at the end I would point out my major direction and major dates ! Think about any product/goods you can see in your life, there are two types of prices.
1/ Production cost price: It is the root value of the product. Factories take time/energy/labor/materials... to complete a product then they just sell to commercial/trading companies. This is normally fixed and does not change in a long period. 2/ Market price: It is the result that commercial/trading companies just sell to end-users. Depending on the types of products, the market price can change frequently. In terms of Bitcoin, which is called a New Gold or a new Ponzi or whatever...
What are you seeing in Binance or Coinbase or CME and ... is Market Price. In this market, the volatility is big. Everyone here knows it is manipulated with the combination of Fear/Fomo, Liquidity, Fud/Good News/ Futures/ Leverage manipulation... You are a trader. You work like commercial/trading companies, also you are an end-user. Market price fluctuation can give you profit or loss.
So, what is the root value of Bitcoin? Key words: Mining Industry/ Miners/ Electricity cost/ Production cost... Bitcoin is a product. The production cost does not change much in a cycle. After each halving, difficulty increases, production cost will increase. That makes bitcoin special/valuable in long run.
Market price fluctuate frequently. In a cycle, Bear or bull, It tends to approach the value of production costs. No Miners, No bitcoin. This is the root value of this product. For current context in this cycle, Electricity cost is 20k (Electricity only) Production cost is 29-34k ( total cost of electricity/labor/factory..)
If you buy #BTC below production cost, It can say you buy cheap BTC. In history of Bitcoin, there are only 3 times BTC touched below production cost. Buying below production cost => Investing Buying above production cost => Trading
📑 Conclusion : I would set two potential entry for investing and trading, $35000 and $32500 (Two mentioned zone on the chart). I would set my invalidation below $29000 as a bullish breaker and ending point for any further leg-up ! Also I'm going to point that In my prediction; I won't expect any major leg-up till 10th February or later... It's better to follow your portfolio as BTC's maximalist, But any recommendation for ALTs should be based on BTC's movement. - In any case of breaking above $55750; I would set my ladder to claim $85000 or higher in long-term.
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support us with your likes and comments ! Attention: this isn't financial advice we are just trying to help people on their own vision.
I mean it would be nice, miners don't have the sway they use to compared to the circulating supply, much of this is overleveraged shorts and retail panic selling. The downward movement off prior ATHs is usually 80%-87% though I do agree we won't see those levels due to the circulating supply. I wouldn't be so worried about the CME because the settlement layer is in USD should not have a direct affect on the price. TBH I am seeing 30 at the very least, Cheers and nice work.
Helical_Trades
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@kewlkat, Hmm This could be a starting phase for new lows below 2021's local low ! I won't being bullish again 29K actually !
But I really appreciate your perspective.. Thanks for sharing it.