Ictons

Why BTC Can Revisit 18.5k

Ictons Updated   
MEXC:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether
Hello traders, this week we've seen a change in momentum for BTC .

In my analysis I combine some basic ICT concepts with Ichimoku . This is a swing-trade type setup.

Observe the 4H timeframe:

After a major drop in price, BTC began consolidating since the beginning of November. Note the overlapping and flat behavior of the TK (blue), KS (pink), and Chikou-span (yellow) line.

This week we've seen the shift in momentum with the TK line turning upward and crossing the KJ line, hinting a shift of short-term momentum.
During the drop BTC created a liquidity void, providing a pool of liquidity for BTC to return back to. I believe we are beginning to see the return to this area before a continuation downward.

The real liquidity appears to lie around the 18.9k area, but with an ICT order block creating resistance around 18.5k the more conservative target would be the order block.

I am anticipating a breakout to the upside above the cloud and a re-test before a move up to complete the "pattern".

On the daily timeframe we can see this is a return to the KJ line. All lines have gone flat - if you study Ichimoku you would know that not only does this tell us that BTC has obviously been consolidating with sideways price action, but also that
  • We have a greater chance of price returning to the KS line which happens to be confluent with our order block area.
  • When the TK and KS line are abnormally this far apart, this also frequently signals a high probability for a pull back to KS line (equilibrium).

Not financial advice. All the best.
Comment: As of 11:00 A.M. NY time, we are seeing price attempt a break out and pulling back to Senkou-span B for support on the 4H. This is also where we have a bullish OB being tested (a good entry point). I am anticipating a bullish reaction to this area to build momentum to break the cloud.
Comment: Price has continued to consolidate after leaving the cloud. This is a good sign of accumulation before a nice big move up on the 4h.

Pay attention for good entries. Price may come back down to to Senkou-span B line on top of the cloud for support at 16.3k. This would be a nice entry.
Trade closed: stop reached: Past two days BTC re-entered consolidation. I believe 18.5k is still in play but re-positioning is needed as BTC continues to seek liquidity.
Trade active: We are now beginning to see momentum as BTC breaks up through the cloud in the 4h. Looking for price to pullback to KS line in the 1hr around 16.5k - 16.6k for entry possibilities.
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