BTC - Sunday update, potential to 9200-9300 before fall
So we went plan B on this. We didn't fail below the daily cloud, and that was my expectation originally. Although I did tell you guys that I cannot discount a run up towards 9k first.
At this point it's pretty clear that a run to a sustained 10k or above is becoming more and more unlikely, and this fits well within the Wyckoff models of a likely drop from this area.
Can I say that it's absolutely out of the question that we visit 10k? Nothing is out of the question, but I am bearish simply because this last drop down tore through the key level wee needed to be above on to sustain a 10k rally, which never really came once we were consolidating after 10300.
So there are solid reasons to be bearish, however, I do expect a retry of the 9200-9300 price levels before that price target that was once a support, now becomes resistance. This bounce up to those prices would also work really well with the daily Ichimoku cloud we are bouncing inside of. The key here is that it will need to get to it.. If the consolidation lasts for too long, it's a sign that there is even too much resistance here already.
I will be shorting this at around 9300, depending upon how much strength we show from there. I'm going to layer in my stop loss at a 1hr candle closing above 9400, or if we break past 9500 and will switch to a long if that happens. Once again, you have to be dynamic with trading, if price does something different than you're expecting, always have a plan B. So anything above 9500 is my plan B.
My current theory is a retest to 9300, and then a fall back down to lower 8k which is the bottom of the Ichi cloud resistance before a drop out of it.
I have a feeling of a potential bounce from there, and a likely hood of prices bouncing around 9k and 8k for the following consolidation period, which would make sense because we have obviously had support at 8k, but 9k at that point and time would have failed us.
Potential scenarios and variables to watch:
-A 1hr candles closes below and inside the Ichimoku cloud (below 9k) : bearish: open a short with a target of 8200.
-We reach 9300 : open a short with a target of 8200.
-Price goes above 9400 and at least a 1hr candle confirms in that price range: open a long with a target of 10k.
-I cannot recommend any long positions being below the 200 MA as it is usually a sign of weakness in price, 1hr time frame close above 9400 would be a bullish case though. A daily candle confirming above 9300 (Ichimoku or 200 MA) is also a bullish scenario in case we spend some time consolidating at 9300 and don't drop immediately after, and you would close your short at 9300 and open a long with a target of 10k.
At this point it's pretty clear that a run to a sustained 10k or above is becoming more and more unlikely, and this fits well within the Wyckoff models of a likely drop from this area.
Can I say that it's absolutely out of the question that we visit 10k? Nothing is out of the question, but I am bearish simply because this last drop down tore through the key level wee needed to be above on to sustain a 10k rally, which never really came once we were consolidating after 10300.
So there are solid reasons to be bearish, however, I do expect a retry of the 9200-9300 price levels before that price target that was once a support, now becomes resistance. This bounce up to those prices would also work really well with the daily Ichimoku cloud we are bouncing inside of. The key here is that it will need to get to it.. If the consolidation lasts for too long, it's a sign that there is even too much resistance here already.
I will be shorting this at around 9300, depending upon how much strength we show from there. I'm going to layer in my stop loss at a 1hr candle closing above 9400, or if we break past 9500 and will switch to a long if that happens. Once again, you have to be dynamic with trading, if price does something different than you're expecting, always have a plan B. So anything above 9500 is my plan B.
My current theory is a retest to 9300, and then a fall back down to lower 8k which is the bottom of the Ichi cloud resistance before a drop out of it.
I have a feeling of a potential bounce from there, and a likely hood of prices bouncing around 9k and 8k for the following consolidation period, which would make sense because we have obviously had support at 8k, but 9k at that point and time would have failed us.
Potential scenarios and variables to watch:
-A 1hr candles closes below and inside the Ichimoku cloud (below 9k) : bearish: open a short with a target of 8200.
-We reach 9300 : open a short with a target of 8200.
-Price goes above 9400 and at least a 1hr candle confirms in that price range: open a long with a target of 10k.
-I cannot recommend any long positions being below the 200 MA as it is usually a sign of weakness in price, 1hr time frame close above 9400 would be a bullish case though. A daily candle confirming above 9300 (Ichimoku or 200 MA) is also a bullish scenario in case we spend some time consolidating at 9300 and don't drop immediately after, and you would close your short at 9300 and open a long with a target of 10k.
Comment:
Look for a dip from here down to about 8970 or so... As long as we dont close below the cloud on the 1hr, we are good for the 9300 target coming first.
