BTC lacks momentum, should go back to 10.600 before further move
BTC couldn't pass the neck line of the big inverse H&S (black dashed line), converging with the upper limit of the main downtrend channel in logarithmic scale (thick red line), the both together acting as a serious resistance for now. Therefore, BTC should likely retrace around the 10.600$ zone before any further movement. The correcting move is confirmed by a divergence on the MACD 1h and the ABC correcting Elliot wave of the last 5 wave progression that just ended right now. There are further former resistance acting as support on the way down that should prevent BTC to loose too much ground : dotted blue lines, 0,382 retrace, former double tops (thin red line) and upper limit of the downtrend channel in linear scale (thick dotted red line).
After the correcting move, since the general indicators are bullish, my bet would be that BTC will have accumulated enough momentum to break the resistance... The actual zone is actually crucial to define the future of BTC. Should it consolidate and stabilize above the neckline and the dowtrend channel, it would become very bullish, with a target around 16.000$, measurable both by the target of the inverse H&S and the general Elliot Wave from the 6000$. Should it not be able to break the resistance and maintain ground above the 11700 zone, then we would likely see a more serious retracement, and maybe a return to a more general bearish momentum. Everything depends on the buyers, the volume remained quite low lately, it looks like people on the market are waiting to see what's going on before taking any decision.
After the correcting move, since the general indicators are bullish, my bet would be that BTC will have accumulated enough momentum to break the resistance... The actual zone is actually crucial to define the future of BTC. Should it consolidate and stabilize above the neckline and the dowtrend channel, it would become very bullish, with a target around 16.000$, measurable both by the target of the inverse H&S and the general Elliot Wave from the 6000$. Should it not be able to break the resistance and maintain ground above the 11700 zone, then we would likely see a more serious retracement, and maybe a return to a more general bearish momentum. Everything depends on the buyers, the volume remained quite low lately, it looks like people on the market are waiting to see what's going on before taking any decision.
Comment:
I updated the chart... I don't think the C retrace should go lower than the 4th wave, which was already lower than the 1st wave, which is not supposed to happen. So I updated my target to the 10.800 zone. The strength of the actual retracement should give us an indication of what's coming next. A weak retracement would confirm the general bullish feeling. A strong retracement would show the opposite... let's see!
Comment:
I might be wrong on that one. As Zabed suggested in the comments, the wave 4 should't override the top of the 1. Here is another solution suggested by a friend of mine (thanx @attgeo).
There is still this divergence on the MACD 1h that will need to be absorbed, maybe through the retrace of the 4th blue wave?
There is still this divergence on the MACD 1h that will need to be absorbed, maybe through the retrace of the 4th blue wave?