BTCUSD (12h): First idea of a trend line (new chart series)

At the moment we all have only a few facts on which we could base our longer-term TAs. I have therefore tried to draw a possible trend channel roughly and I have tried to derive a trend line . From my point of view, two trend lines are currently quite plausible. If the bulls loses its power and the bears take over, the whole chart is not correct. But according to my TA we are still in a bull market. Because the whole thing is very much in change, I will start a BTC chart series.

Let's see what happens. Happy trading. :-)
Comment: BTCUSD (1h): 1 hour close up of the current situation ...

Comment: BTCUSD (2h): update current situation ...

Comment: BTCUSD (2h): maybe were running into a decision triangle. lets see ...

Comment: BTCUSD (4h): btc breaks the short term resistance ...

Comment: BTCUSD (4h): Update ... next strong resitance at 16800. SHS also possible.

Comment: btcusd (4h): update just on the way up to the resistance.

Comment: btcusd (4h): update - possible short term trendline.

Comment: btcusd (2h): update - short term rising wedge broke.

Comment: BTCUSD (4h): update - near support line within the short term channel.

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Comment: btcusd (4h): broke short term support. trendline 1 still works.

Comment: btcusd (1h): shs! ... update

Comment: btcusd (4h): btc went the way as predicted. now we see two strong support lines coming from the past. the blue at 1 and the purple at 2. let see which one is the right one. This allows a better identification of the way to continue. for all those who have been waiting with their reentry, it is now time to watch out for the best time.

Comment: btcusd (2h): btc could not break the short term resistance yesterday. next possible bigger support at 1200.

Comment: btcusd (1h): lets see, if btc also breaks the strong restitance at 15300.



German Bitcoin Consultant · Trading · Research · Investing

Investing in Bitcoin and Cryptocoins since 2014.
Trading experience for over thirty years.



As someone who is new to investing in general what is a good way of allocating capital PERCENTAGE between

a) short term trades eg 1-7 days?
b) swing trades eg 1-30 days?
c) investment portfolio eg 365+ days?
d) cash/fiat for unexpected opportunities (big dips) or is this the same as short term?

What percentages would you allocate to each a b c AND what is a relevant time window for each - as I have written or something else?

Any other advice you can offer to someone not so experienced would be great. Thanks and Merry xmas! :)
+3 Reply
btcinvests noideaihave

first thank you for your comment and your question. I will answer it from my point of view briefly....

1. if you start trading, don't take any money that you need. you could lose everything - even in a bull market. trading is a tough business.

2. set back your winnings. i've been trading for many years - just a few cryptos. i put my winnings into non volatile and safe investments. over time, you can increase the amount of money you use for trading as your experience grows.

3. i work with a zero lost strategy. that means my profits are much less than those of traders who trade risky, but in the end this strategy was always good for me. it needs a lot of patience and you have to free yourself from fomo. according to the motto: the last one will be the first one. how does the zero lost strategy work? losses can never be eliminated, but I keep them as low as possible. and only when I have balanced out a loss, do I return to "normal" trading. i get in first 10 % after sigal and get out 10 % before the signal. You might miss a jump. that's okay. you might miss the crash, too. ;-) Often I only gain 5 or 10 %. But they're safe. There's a lot of % coming out over the year. That the bitcoin has risen by 1700 % is not normal. And you can't measure up to that either. A professional trader in the classic investment sector expect to generate 20 - 30% profit per year.

4. spread your portfolio. Use only a small portion for risk trading. My split is 20-40-40: 20 Day. 40 Swing. 40 Invest. I only do day trading when I really have time and can stay tuned.

5. And don't forget... Make good trades, money is secondary. What do I mean? Once you see the money and not the trade, you might get greedy and emotion has nothing to do with trading.

6. Learn TA. Technical analysis is your instrument. Start learning to know and apply all indicators. You will find indicators that match you. The most important ones are Fibo, RSI, Stoch RSI, MACD, Bollinger Band, Ichimuku and the most important MA (Moving Average). Learn to understand the MA (8,14,20,50,100).

7. memorize formations. You need to see the most important formations immediately. SHS, wedge, trend channels, etc.

8. memorize figures. You must have the most important prizes in mind. Don't focus on one asset. Use comparatively USD, EUR, Gold etc.

9. learn to work with different times. A chart looks different if you set it to 15 minutes or 3 days. Different for 1 hour and 8 hours. You have to learn to switch between the times and learn to get the information for your decision. I think that is the most challenge. Because that only comes with time.

10. Be always patient, satisfied and happy.
+4 Reply
AlxSt7 btcinvests

Also beginner in trading. Now 50% BTC and 50% USDT. How would you allocate this today , not trading for the next month. Objective is to travel and not think about kkk. Thanks an Merry Xmas.
@AlxSt7, on which stock exchange do you use? then first look at the most important coins: btc, eth, ripple, etc, ltc, etc. the top 10/20: then start with very small trades. if you sell btc now, you win or lose? and if so, how much. if I know that I can recommend you a split.

what is happening with btc now ... we are seeing it on a downtrend rally in the past 4 hours now - could this trigger mean that btc would be going towards the 8k or 9k correction as predicted
and thought in the beginning because some considered the initial correction to be a very short correction which wasn't a genuine correction given the fact that BTC had a long rally upwards..
would love your opinions and thoughts on this matter.

many thanks
+1 Reply
btcinvests octave7
@octave7, hard to say. i am still observing. now were near the short term support line. if it will break, further down could be expected.
octave7 btcinvests
@btcinvests, could you please tell me where the short term support line ? i am new to this whole thing and find
your chart analysis very interesting.
btcinvests octave7
@octave7, the purple one
Why do you think this correction will continue to correct further downwards as opposed to going up to 20K and higher from its current position?

This correction looks quite similar to September correction from 5000 to 3000. It corrected to 0.618 fib, formed a Adam & Eve double bottom, then a symmetrical triangle, which broke up, and there will be a golden cross in the next day or so. Very similar to now. Why won't price continue to move up instead of going back down to 10K like in September?

I know not all history will repeat but would love to hear your reasoning why this situation is different to September, and why you think it will go down first.
+1 Reply
btcinvests cupfish
@cupfish, that's all still uncertain. as you can see in my post above, it could also be a shs. i'm also still careful and think that the correction isn't over yet. we can't know how the futures influence the price. here, we all have to lern at the moment.
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