Bitcoin - The legend

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
In this chart you can see that a couple of things happened. #1 Just as I have been saying for a few weeks now, keep an eye on the 12H and the 200MA, once price goes under the 200MA on the 12H BTC will struggle to come back up, moreover, If price can't make it above the 200MA we will go down quite a bit. #2 We've had a trendline violation which it's yet another indication that BTC is weak and does not have any buyers at this point. The first X (from top to bottom) is sitting on very strong support so it may take a while to break through and keep going down.
This is what I will be on the lookout for:
The first X has very strong support, it may stage a rally once price gets there, that rally may lead to a big up move.
The first X has very strong support, if it breaks easily we'll tumble down to the upper 6k's (This is the likely scenario)
The first X has very strong support, it may take a while to break and if so we'll go to the low 8k after a little rally.

There are always leading measures (early signs) that give you a heads up about what is going to happen. In this case, the red downtrend channel line has become insane resistance. BTC can run up to it all it wants but if it does not go over it, it will lead to a big drop as punishment.
If BTC goes over this line we sit up and pay attention, what specifically are we looking for? We are looking for a new "High Low" or a new "High high" at which point I will indicate where to jump in.

Going back to leading measures; On the last post, I told you that if BTC closed more than 3 candles below the 50MA on the 12H it will lead to a down move. Well... here we are, it happened just as I said. Now, today we're about to close our second candle below the trendline , needless to say, that will lead to a further drop .

So my charts are easier to understand I'm creating a legend, so here we go.
Support trendlines are green
Resistance trendlines are Red
Horizontal support lines are Black the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is Black

Your idea is very interesting, but I would not hurry up with trying to difine the direction)
Please share your opinion about my idea about BTC
@Anpu, correct, let BTC set the pace. thanks for sharing good stuff.
why 12H?
+1 Reply
Great question. In the markets, there's always a battle zone. Bears are fighting the bulls 24/7 and depending on the outcome of the battle we go up or down. For the last few weeks the battle has been the 50MA and the 200MA in the 12H. You have to look and find which moving average is interacting with price in any given timeframe and once you find it you stick to that timeframe and watch the interaction between price and moving averages. Now that it is obvious that the 12H is old news we may start looking at the 1D and 3 Day timeframe. The 1Day is looking to form a death cross and that is bad news for the bulls and so then it becomes a major battleground.
+4 Reply
ruif3rro cryptoGats
Understood and thank you for that.
In some exchanges, Bitstampo for example, the death cross on the Daily is already at play.
Not so fun times ahead.
Your first sign to get out is too many green candles (irrational exuberance) on the daily, you should have gotten out in June. July 9th was a huge (and last) warning sign to get out when we did a lower high on moderate volume. We'll stay out for now as we never ever put a dime in while on a downtrend. However, alts are insane good specially BNB.
+1 Reply
VeeChi cryptoGats
@cryptoGats, Wish I had found you back in June/July I would have saved myself a bunch of money. Following your Ideas from now on I need to recover my funds hope your TA and Ideas help me.
@ruif3rro, yes that variate abut not that drastically
@ruif3rro, that’s where the struggle was at that point.
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