Regera

"Top" authors can't draw a trend line LOL

Short
BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
It's absolutely astonishing to me that "top" authors on the front page can't draw the most important trend line of BTC's structure and don't take that into consideration in their analysis.

Over the past few days I've seen chart after chart jumping on the bull wagon. The latest impulse move got them riled up. "We've broken above major resistance... check out this fractal ..... to da mooooooooonn!!!!"

Then BTC hits the trend line resistance and reverses right off of it... not surprising considering the whole point of charting resistance zones / reversal points is for traders to sell when they hit them. Also not surprising is that the fractal they're referencing doesn't usually head into a significant resistance so it's really a useless comparison.

Then their updates echoed by the comments: BTC is so manipulated! Whales something or other. Tether is a scam (ok, that one has merit ).

But whale / market manipulation? Really? A beginner who reads the first chapter of any charting book will learn how to draw a trend line . Is it that unfathomable that BTC reversed off of the longest down trend line that's been in play since 2017?

People who don't understand charting / technical analysis will make excuses as to why they think it's a bunch of baloney. Good for them (and better for us). Trading without guidance is just gambling and the vast majority of people who don't use TA will be victims of the market. On the other hand, those who learn charting and technical analysis use it because it provides rules and structures to trade off of. Those who understand it will identify buy/sell zones and execute in concert.

As a general rule traders sell at resistance and buy at support. That said, when price retests the most significant trend line resistance for the last 3 years (arguably in the history of BTC ) it's not that surprising to see a reversal.

Tradingview really nails their "top" authors picks. After all, likes and comments are the most important thing on the internet these days and who cares about actually getting proof of the assets "top" authors are trading and periodically verifying to see if they actually trade what they post. No, no... it's much better to have authors who won't commit to anything, beating their chest about how they're always right because they posted 5 charts this week and in all of them they straddled so the only thing they were right about was the market moving either up or down. Be sure to like their idea and buy their signal service though LOL!

Right now on the front page there's not a single "top" author who has this trend line as part of their analysis. The most important trend line in BTC's history nowhere to be found. That should tell you about the quality of the charts/ideas that make it to the front page. I just checked again. Not one. Be better Tradingview.
Comment:
I've been saying for weeks now that BTC has been sending mixed signals and it's best to wait and see what it decides to do next. There are arguments that can be made for BTC to move higher and arguments for it to move lower. That said I'd like to talk about the latest pump that created a bullish engulfing candle.

I watched that live and in less than 20 minutes BTC pumped 3% wiping away the prior day's losses. The overall volume, however, is suspect and does not substantiate the move in my eyes. To me, it feels like the classic bull trap right below a key resistance designed to lure inexperienced and undisciplined traders. Not only did the subsequent candles suppress movement at the top of the pump, price is currently trending down. Recent pumps have done so with higher volume and ultimate returned to prior levels (even below). I believe price may float here for a while, perhaps even make a move higher to retest the major down trend resistance line (the only line on the entire chart for this idea) but ultimately BTC will drop. In the unlikely event it breaks through traders will buy the breakout, myself included. Until that happens prudent traders will wait patiently and take advantage of the higher probability setups to come.
Comment:
I meant to post this yesterday when it happened but got sidetracked. First off, I've been preaching a cash position despite all the "top" authors making their bullish arguments. One line matters and it's on my chart. No one should be bullish until price clears and confirms above that resistance. Secondly, if someone's stupid enough to gamble and got in the market, when they saw bears smack down a rally like that it's better to be safe than sorry and get out! Anyone who bought after that selloff deserves to bleed.
Comment:
Comment:
BTC is approaching some key supports comprised of a minor triangle baseline and the daily 50MA. Despite this, I'm not buying. Why? When price is this close to the head of the triangle this is when violent, major moves can happen (so violent that stop losses aren't fulfilled) in either direction and currently the trend is down. Moreover, too many people jumped right back on the alt train with some pumping double digits and this would be an ideal opportunity to trap all those sheep chasing those gains. Lastly, this is exactly what a dead cat bounce is: price drops steeply, appears to show strength on the recovery (BTC's 4hr candles showed 3 white soldiers) then it does a U turn and crashes through a strong support.

The number 1 rule of trading is to protect your capital. Doing so means passing on an otherwise strong technical area because the larger structure shows great risk. This is the type of discipline that separates the professional traders from the rest. In chess the pawns go first. I need to see BTC decisively break out of that triangle in order to be able to formulate any high probability setup because right now BTC isn't giving me that.
Comment:
Still waiting in cash. BTC started the dead cat bounce then it suddenly reversed for literally no good technical reason and since then it's been dropping below the 50MA every day while closing above it. Normally a series of pins bars closing above support is a sign of upward movement however the overall price is declining as is the volume which signifies low enthusiasm for upward movement. It likely means it's a matter of time before price succumbs and drops to the lower levels of support.

A sucker's rally is when price explodes upwards without any real technical support, slowly fizzles out and drops lower from where the rally started. The thing about sucker's rallies is that they can only be called that AFTER the price drops below the starting point of the rally and by then the suckers have already been made. It's possible BTC moves higher and negates the "sucker" nomenclature of the rally but once again while there's mixed signals, the overall structure is bearish and price will likely move lower.
Comment:
BTC broke above the triangle (orange) and will likely retest the confirmation line (yellow) and/or downtrend resistance dating back to 2017 (red). I'll take a position here and sell off at those resistances with a stop loss set under the support base line (green). Trend is still bearish but breaking above with all that support increases the probability of retesting those resistances so it's relatively low risk to buy this breakout so long as I take quick profits.
Trade active:
BTC pushed above the confirmation level. 1st target hit.
Trade active:
Everything between the confirmation line (yellow) and the baseline support (green) is a zone to reload. Stop loss is set below the baseline support.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Stop loss hit for a net break even after fees. If price moves back into the reload zone then I'll reenter but for now it's back to wait and see.
Comment:
If price breaks above the orange line I'll buy that breakout with the confirmation line as the selloff target. It's possible price may move between the confirmation line and the dotted green line support so the reload zone reflects that short term support. Stoploss is set under that support.
Trade active:
Price moved above the orange trendline and into the reload zone, trade active.
Trade closed manually: I'm closing this trade manually for a small profit of ~2%. The latest BTC move down looks to be bearish engulfing and a little profit is better than none. Back to cash for the time being.
Trade active:
Trade is back on. Buying in 1% higher but the structure held and entering after the breakout above $9300 is worth the premium compared to the risk of BTC dropping substantially.
Comment:
I didn't redraw a short term resistance trend line. On this chart it's the pink dotted line. That's the breakout above $9300 that should be a level changer.
Trade active:
Good break out of the pink dotted down trend line and above the 50MA. A confirmation close above it should lead to a retest of the long term downtrend resistance line (red).
Trade closed: target reached:
BTC broke above the major down trend resistance (red) hitting my target and closing out the trade. Now I'll wait for confirmation for BTC to stay above it before reentering.

Comments

I've had that same trendline charted since mid last year. I was waiting for price to bounce off of it and for price to decline. Couldn't understand all the bullish sentiment. I'm with you and thanks for posting this. Glad I'm not the only one seeing this perspective.
+3 Reply
Regera millert25
@millert25, You're welcome and stay the path. Probability for BTC to drop is likely in this structure and it may take some time for the market to catch on and when it does BTC could be headed back to the $3k - 5k range. The $6k - 7k support is going to be a key reversal zone so we just have to wait and see if it holds assuming BTC doesn't break out of its bearish structure.
+2 Reply
Agree, also it is scary how Tether has printed like 2 Billion Dollars in the last 3 months. Tether can print USDT and buy BTC at a higher price so they can PUMP, it is sad how they steal money from crypto. I wonder what is going to take to bring Tether down? also now some other Stable coins are doing the same, printing printing and printing.
+2 Reply
Regera TWIMARKETCAP
@TWIMARKETCAP, If I had the means to create USDT I wouldn't use it to pump the market... not until I load up at lower levels knowing full well I'm going to pump the market and sell off at the artificial top I create. It's speculated that USDT is underfunded by as much as 30-50% meaning that for every $1,000,000 USD they're supposed to have in escrow/reserve they really only have $500-700k. They'll only get caught if every USDT holder wants to withdraw at the same time which is highly unlikely. From now until then they can manipulate the market and drive it so that they can profit at the top and close the gap of what they owe to the escrow accounts. That's wishful thinking though because people who have that kind of power rarely do the right thing and will likely use it for their own personal gain thinking they can do it over and over again and will never get caught... until they do and the whole market, particularly the little guys, will suffer.
+1 Reply
@Regera, agree, and it is scary since most people think USDT is safe heaven when shorting bitcoin.
+1 Reply
@Regera, interesting, it pierced your line, lets see what will happen with btc and the stock market tomorrow, specially after the USA gov just announced a new $1200 aid check for august.
Reply
Regera TWIMARKETCAP
@TWIMARKETCAP, For some reason I didn't get a notification about your comment until just now. Yes the key trend line was pierced on the 3rd attempt (which I referenced in an earlier post). It's right up against fib and cross sectional resistance. A retest of support whether it be the confirmation line from 2019 or the major down trend line that should act as support would be ideal for reentry. The other option is to buy the breakout above the fib/cross sectional resistance. The drop yesterday created a bearish engulfing candle so BTC could tip either way at this point.
Reply
@Regera, Hey there,good to see you here. Yeah it happens sometimes. About btc, I still think that we will go down specially if the stock market collapses. So far the stock market is being pumped, corona virus getting more crazy in the USA and people are losing jobs and have not money to pay daily living. How many stimulus checks the government will print out of thin air before the dollar collapses? I agree with your comment, but I think this btc breakout might be a fake breakout.
Reply
So it is Going Down to re-Test 8800-8900 Dollars ?
Reply
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