I've been right and wrong before, but the recent pattern I am seeing with BTC looks kind of familiar. In the back of my head, I still have that 20-25k target. The recent pattern BTC has been making has me slightly worried as it oddly resembles a Wyckoff distribution, but on a tiny scale. Or perhaps it is just paranoia. Either way, not sure if I am betting on a dump yet, but I did set limit orders for my target lows. I have this saying where "the price you want always exists." My gut tells me 20-25k. When? I don't know, but I would bet it will happen eventually. I am not a bull or bear right now, just skeptical. Especially with how the world is turning out. Let me know your thoughts!
BTW check out my old ETH chart. Maybe I'm psychic??
I don't think you are psychic. Got the same impression over the last days. Feels pretty strange because all my crypto friends are in complete denial of any downside risk right now and think of me just as a permabear.
Which is unfair, as i am completly long right now with my money :D
There is a lot of sideways volatility notable not only in bitcoin chart, but even more with ETH! And some of the recently pumped altcoins also show high volatility at the tops.
Reminds me of April and early May.
Might this be just a consolidation structure (SOS) before the next leg up? Possible.
But i also do whale wallet watching and i recognized some serious withdrawals of coins from some large wallets right when BTC reached 45 k. Not only BTC but also alts like litecoin. Coincidence? Maybe, but i don't think so.
Volume also doesn't look too good. It dries up the higher we come - typical for distribution.
I won't change positions right now, because it's tricky business to identify any Wyckoff-action on a timescale of only a few days.
But if BTC will break down south of the uptrend channel, i will take this as a strong confirmation sign for this theory and i will then reduce risk.
If BTC will be able to hold above 52k for at least a week i will consider this theory as likely unvalidated.
Gknight0625
⋅
@benarni, Awesome reply! Let's see how this plays out
benarni
⋅
@Gknight0625,
well, time for an update. Distribution pattern seems to play out textbooklike again - like in April. Is there a possiblity the composite operator is just mimicking a distribution to scare retailers out of the market before they resume the uptrend? Of course!
But probabilty is not too high. In my experience the "what you see is what you get" story is always the most likely. If it looks like distribution it probably is one.
Anyhow, the situation got complicated right after the recent nasty drop. Now we have as strong accumulation pattern going on below 45 k BTC. Whales are accumulating heavily! Both BTC and altcoin whales. This accumulation is still embedded into the distribution fractal, but in the end the initial distribution might turn into reaccumulation.
Key indicators to watch:
- volume! If we have reaccumulation we want to see supply getting exhausted over time ->> diminishing volume, especially on the dips!
- low liquid BTC supply. Check crypto quant or other on chain resources for the amount of btc on the exchanges. Should stay low if we have reaccumulation.
- decreasing volatility of price. Goes in line with decreasing volume....
If we don't see these indicators moving in the mentioned directions we probably have distribution in play and 100 k BTC will be delayed... we then will probably go back down into the 30s for a couple of month.
Which is unfair, as i am completly long right now with my money :D
There is a lot of sideways volatility notable not only in bitcoin chart, but even more with ETH! And some of the recently pumped altcoins also show high volatility at the tops.
Reminds me of April and early May.
Might this be just a consolidation structure (SOS) before the next leg up? Possible.
But i also do whale wallet watching and i recognized some serious withdrawals of coins from some large wallets right when BTC reached 45 k. Not only BTC but also alts like litecoin. Coincidence? Maybe, but i don't think so.
Volume also doesn't look too good. It dries up the higher we come - typical for distribution.
I won't change positions right now, because it's tricky business to identify any Wyckoff-action on a timescale of only a few days.
But if BTC will break down south of the uptrend channel, i will take this as a strong confirmation sign for this theory and i will then reduce risk.
If BTC will be able to hold above 52k for at least a week i will consider this theory as likely unvalidated.