I've re-analyzed and come to a new idea of what I think will happen. Previously I thought we might be in a super big bearish gartley. I think we're not doing that anymore. I think we're going to take a ride down to 24/26k and i think it happens in the next 2 weeks.
I believe we are repeating the fractal on the left at 65k right now. I highlighted both fractals so you can see them.
1) Left box. It made the 1st high. Then 2nd high. Then 3rd high. Then a LOWER high. Then it did the savage dump down to 28k. 2) Right box. It did the same stuff. 1st high. 2nd high. 3rd high. LOWER high.
The blue box on the right is the same as the box on the left... it's just smaller in magnitude, and it's happening slightly faster. About twice as fast.
I used fibonacci to find the first bottom on the left in that 65k blowoff top down to 28k crash.
1) I anchored the 1 of the fib structure at 65k(A inside the left box). 2) I put the .5 (B inside the left box). 3) The 0 of the fib structure(? It perfectly nails the bottom down at 28k. (C inside the left box)
Repeating that same stuff on the right...
1) I put the 1 at 53k. (A on the right side) 2) I put the .5 at 39.5k. (B on the right side)
It foreshadows 26k at a minimum (C on the right side).
Which is believable. 26k might be the bottom of this crash. Or it might go a little lower. I think it will go just a tiny bit lower.
The white dashed line is the trend line of the bottom of the wicks in the 28k area. The yellow dashed line is the daily candle close of the bottom of the 28k area. There is a 4 hour candle close trendline that lines up with hitting the 25k area too. I just didnt want to overload the screen.
These two dashed lines converge basically on october first at 25k.
These two trendlines tell me the dump will happen on october 1st. I'm not 100% sold on october first... but I do think it's very possible.
The upsloping yellow line is the daily candle close trendline dating back from march 2020. Once we get below that... I promise you we are crashing a lot. This daily candle close trendline is around 38k. Once we're below 38k... we are crashing in the dirt like a UFO crash down to 24-26k.
I copied the fractal from 65k and superimposed it over the 53k topping pattern. II lined up the 3 tops and the lower highs with each other... and it lines up with happening around October 1st also. The wicks of the 65k down to 28k bottom line up with the 2 dashed trendlines really well. I think it happens in early october.
If i'm wrong about the crash happening in the next week or 10 days... I do think it will happen in 2-3 weeks. The highest I see it coming is up to 49k before dumping down to this 24/25k area. I do believe this will happen. I might be jumping the gun by one cycle. It might come up one more time. Or, it might just be ready to go down now.
If 25k happens it will possibly fly up to 35k really quickly before resuming this crash for a month or two. I'm buying 25k and hoping for a quick 30-40% pop to the upside.
Then i'm going to wait a month or two for a re-entry on a position around 24k.
Alright help me out here. If it hits 24k/25k how long do you think it’s going to take for a bull run and what point will BTC get to when the bull run starts
UnknownUnicorn4285265
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@Moya_McGough, My long term thoughts are as follows.
I think 24k area in a couple weeks.
I think it will come up from there to like 43-53k again some time around december/january.
I think then it drops down to finish this bear market. You'll think i'm crazy because everyone does, but I think we are dropping to 5,200$ on march 15th, 2022 right now.
I believe we will have a covid crash #2 in march 2022. Everything just... makes sense... if that happens. They'll blame it on covid like they did in march 2020.
I do believe the upcoming march 2022 crash will be the last crash before it goes on a 4 year bullrun though. I think whatever it drops to... it goes on a 4 year rampage up. I think it could go from 300k... up to maybe as high as a million dollars in 2024.
I'm not sure how stupid 2024 will be. It might get really stupid (stupid in a good way.)
UnknownUnicorn4285265
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@Moya_McGough, I will add that I am not certain about the bottom date or location yet. I will be certain after we make our upcoming bottom.
My alternate theory is a christmas/new years lockdown and 16,200$ bitcoin.
I'm just not sure which of the two happens yet. Either/Or at this point.
ClearOpenDoor
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@chataylo I'm betting that logarithmic resistance line doesn't take btc past around 250k in 2024.
As it is we ground up against the top of the channel earlier this year. A lot of people think we have to touch the bottom of the logarithmic support line next which is roughly in line with your bearish expectations. That may be true. But, it also might turn out that they extend then length of this bull run overall again like they did the last one in relation to the one before that. If so we could be finding a bounce in the mid-20s and a slow and steady climb from there to around 140k late next year.
I'm really on the fence atm, I want to play the bearish gartley idea because it fits perfectly in line with a lot of factors and will allow the 200 weekly MA to catch up to the low 20s before we fall to it and bounce from there. But, occams razor suggests the simple course may take us down there in the coming weeks. It really all depends what happens in the 37k range.
UnknownUnicorn4285265
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@ClearOpenDoor i agree that there are 3 - 4 ways this can play out. The gartley theory is just one of my ideas. At times i considered using 2013 and 2017 as a guide... but I kind of had an epiphany of sorts.
Everything changed for bitcoin in 2018/2019. This was the first bullish sequence for bitcoin while leveraged money was occurring. I think it's possible leveraged money leaves a few price movement sequences similar to 2019/2020.
So the 14k blowout top in 2019? I think it's very possible we repeat that structure. Not repeat it exactly in fibonnaci levels, per say...
But repeat it in macro analysis.
1) 14k=65k 2)crash to 7500=crash to 28k (both crashed to weekly candle close trendline). 3) burst to 10.5k=recent rise to 53k. 4) in 2019/2020 we did a 1.272 fib extension down to 6500 (fib extending from 10.5k and 7.5k). This would be 22k for our next crash... I think this is a little extreme though... but it is the lowest I think this coming crash can go to. 5) after 6500 in 2019/2020... bitcoin rides the underside of that weekly candle close and rejects.
in 2020 it was a double top at 10.5k. It was roughly a .5 fib retracement of the macro structure. I think the key element though, is that it was under that weekly candle close trendline.
Basically I expect the ultimate bear market rejection to be under that weekly candle close trend line. It's a sliding scale right now.
Christmas bottom = 43-46k rejection around December 1st March 15th bottom = 53k rejection around February 12th.
ClearOpenDoor
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@chataylo, That's an interesting analysis. The June 2019 top was almost exactly a .65 fib retracement as well. We could be playing out a similar structure in 1/3rd the time. I just wish the 200 weekly MA had time to catch up to the 22k range that we are hoping it falls to. I guess you can't expect all of the pieces of the puzzle to exactly fit!
UnknownUnicorn4285265
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@ClearOpenDoor, One tiny comment here. If we end up seeing it go all the way down to 22k in october/november... I think the ultimate bottom will be 3k or 9500$.
So this upcoming october/november crash, we'll call it point A. After A, it will go up to make a top one last time in december/january. I'll call that point B.
The ultimate bottom will be a 1.618 fib extension down from point A and point B.
If we do 22k and then double top at 53k? 3k happens.
If we do 22k and then only go up to 43k? i'm expecting 9500$.
The 1.618 is the golden ratio and I do believe it is the answer to the bottom. Once the upcoming bottom and top are printed... it will give an exact target of the ultimate bottom. This predicted the 3900$ bottom in the march 2020 covid crash.
I'm so excited for 2022! :)
ClearOpenDoor
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@chataylo, That's a good point. Perhaps this lends credence to a potential short-term bullish scenario, since a fall that low now would really wipe out the crypto space for a very long time. It would really have to happen in a very limited timespan and not go as high as most bulls expect it to go. That would catch both the bears and the bulls with their pants down and finally allow big money to unload at higher prices. Currently mulling such a scenario over in my mind.
If it hits 24k/25k how long do you think it’s going to take for a bull run and what point will BTC get to when the bull run starts