So this is my first time posting an idea - and it's kind of a mess really, because I've been sketching around since late december. But two clear ideas I made quite early on is the bottom of the downtrend channel and the triangle wedge. The bottom channel suggested the start of a bear market, and the top at $17k confirmed the channel, while the triangle suggested a continuation of the bear trend. I wasn't fully invested during this period, but made a couple of trades (made more loss from the bear trend than I could gain from trades, though), up until the USDT subpoena news dropped. I've been skeptic about USDT before, but this was enough to make withdraw everything into USD instead, because I knew this would be bad.
The news were eerily well timed with the last touch at the top of the triangle, followed by a break downwards. So I started to scribble around to see if a buy opportunity would present itself. I'm still certain the USDT scandal has triggerd FUD to new highs, but I do believe small trades could be made here (probably long positions as well, but I'll rather not risk holding the bag if the USDT shitstorm goes supernova)!.
Bear in mind (pun intended), I'm NOT a pro, so I'm very open to hear your thoughts instead of defending this as some kind of truth! But now on to the idea:
This is a BTC/USDT chart, with 4h candlesticks. In December we saw strong support at 11.8k (tripple bounce), which after the Jan 17th dip acted like a bit of a resistance (with two false break outs). Expecting the triangle to break downwards into a double bottom at around $9.2k before heading south again I noticed the $11.8k and $9.2k lined up quite nicely with the 0.618 and 0.382 fib levels. This made me to reconsider and scratch the double bottom idea and instead aim for the area at the bottom of the bear channel. BTC broke through the 0.382 fib, confirming that the double bottom wasn't going to happen, but this made me curious if my current idea could be more likely.
The very first thing I found interesting here is the RSI being below 30, which would indicate BTC being oversold. Compare it to the dip at Jan 17th and you'll see the volumes are pretty similar before the small bounce. The yellow dotted line is a support/resistance from late of november, which lines up quite nicely near the 0.236 fib but also the bottom of the bear channel. All of this leads me to believe we could see a bit of a support around $7.6-8k, which could be a nice entry zone for a trade. I'd wait for some kind of confirmation in stronger volume around that area and also at least one green candle from there. I believe the FUD is strong, so if the support is confirmed, it'll probably meet resistance at the 0.382 fib and continue down from there. But that's still a good 15-20% profit, so I'd definately consider a trade here if the support were to be confirmed!
In longer terms though I believe the bear trend to continue. It would take alot to break this channel, and with the FUD from USDT, bitcoin bans, and discussions of regulations, the media as a lot of canon fodder to keep the FUD going. I'm quite positive if USDT turns out to be a scam though. Sure, the market could crash, but with more and more fiat exchanges on the horizon it means that the market will recover and become more healthy than before!
Be safe, and let's hope for the best!
Comment:
I noticed gdax has been around 2-2.5% lower than Poloniex this week, and for a brief moment it went to a 5% difference instead. This coupled with Tether at 0.97 per USD suggested that BTC likely was bought at exchanges, transfered ti fiat exchanges (Coinbase) and sold into fiat. We saw a quick burst from $7966 to $8500, which could be the first sign of my suggested support to hold, but I wouldn't call it a confirmation until the 4h candle forms.