All You Need to Know About Bullish Trend in Crypto Market The crypto market stays under the bearish pressure and many traders try to predict the reversal.
When a Bullrun? It’s a question which we would like to have a clear answer with exact date and price point.
In this post, we try to make it clear and try to «predict» when we may see the beginning of a new bullish trend .
First of all, we have to understand that the price has to bounce from the bottom in order to start the bullish trend . And in many posts I wrote that from my point of view, the true bottom is going to be the space between $14 000 and $10 000.
Why not the exact price but range? Because these levels were important in the past. If we consider the high volatility of Bitcoin and the previous market movements, $14 000 and $10 000 will be close to each other. Also, we all want to see clear signals around the exact numbers. But the manipulators / whales / big players don’t have a goal to help us make tons of money. They don’t have a goal to help us open long position at the bottom. They need our money. And for this, they have to play with us!
Many traders think that the bottom is $20 000. We saw the consolidation but the price moved below it! We saw the price consolidation around $18 600 and the price moved below it again.
IF/WHEN the price reaches $14 000, "crypto gurus" will promote the idea about the bottom. So, after that $10 000 will be a logical target.
What does it mean??? The manipulators play with us. They show us that the price reached the bottom. They motivate us to go all-in and open long trades. They create FOMO through their social media accounts managed by «crypto gurus» and «experts». And after that they use news to push the price to new lows.
I don’t like an idea to compare different periods. Because different periods can be the same on the chart but have different fundamentals behind. But this time, I have to compare 2018-2019 with our days. Because right now the market follows the same model. It doesn’t mean that it will be the same in the future, but right now we can use it.
What does it mean??? It means the we should be ready to see at least 2 bottoms. In 2018 the price consolidated around $6000 and we all thought that a new bullish trend would be started from that numbers. But the price moved below and we got the 2nd bottom around $3000.
The whole period took about 1 year!
What do we have now??? We have the 1st bottom around $18 600. Many traders expected to see a rally from this support and the market tried to follow this idea. But thanks to manipulated news, the price moved below $18 600. So, we are moving to the 2nd bottom between $14 000 - 10 000. If the market starts consolidating around $10 000 for at least several months, it will be a good bullish signal. It may confirm that the market will use this bottom as a starting point for the bullish trend .
But, any trend reversal doesn’t mean to reach the exact price levels. THERE MUST BE FUNDAMENTAL REASONS FOR A NEW TREND!!!
Even if the price reached $10 000, we have to wait for macro factors which will be at least neutral. Right now we have bearish fundamental which doesn’t allow the market to reverse.
We have to watch for inflation %, interest rates in Europe and USA, the war, the Stock and Energy markets. We need bullish sentiment from these directions and only after that we may think about the beginning of a new bullish cycle in the crypto market.
And, we need to see a long-term consolidation BEFORE the 1st reliable bullish signal supporting the uptrend. Without consolidation I don’t believe that the bullish cycle will be possible.
The consolidation is the period when the manipulators will build long positions. They need to be careful and add volume step by step. That’s why the consolidation around the 2nd bottom will be one of the main elements of the future uptrend.
If we combine fundamental and technical factors, I wouldn’t expect to see the bullish trend in the 1st part of 2023. Maybe during the 2nd part of 2023 we will have all elements for the uptrend. I won’t be surprised if we have to wait for 2024 and 2023 will be the year of the consolidation.
Also, I would like to consider the 3rd bottom or a short term downward movement toward $6 000. The manipulators may do it if they need additional volume for their long positions.
So, just in a few words I tried to share with you my thoughts about Bitcoin and the whole crypto market. I use these ideas for planning my trades. I will be grateful for your feedback. Please, share your thoughts in the comments and smash the LIKE button if you the value in this post.
It's always good to receive confirmation of our price expectations in the form of a post like this one, which comes from someone who knows his stuff pretty well. You and I have very slight differences in our market expectations. I see a bottom of 8600-8700 with potential flash crashes down to around 5000, due to excessive manipulation and extreme cascading fear in the market. This does not include any potential conflict with Russia. If the Russia conflict starts spread (and it's starting to look like it will), then who knows how low all markets can go. Worse case scenario of course, world war 3 and all markets dump huge time, and just like that we could see BTC under 1k again. Hmff... who knows... Let's see what tomorrow brings. But yes I also think manipulation will be the reason we hit the new low, before the next bull run. Le bucket is under le cow...
DLavrov
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@cryptospawn, Thanks a lot for your comment! It makes sense. I'm sure that the manipulators will try to surprise us. But right now, I don't want to talk much about the exact numbers below $10 000. Just $6 000 as the previous bottom, it's the perfect target. If the price moves in that direction, it will kick out crypto holders from their long positions. I'm sure there will be a lot of people going ALL-IN around $10 000. They will be sure that the price reached the bottom. So, why not to dump the market after that? As an option. it makes sense.
cryptospawn
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@DLavrov, great point. I'm happy with 10k, but happier with 6k.
onelikeno1
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@cryptospawn, I don't know what is the price of Bitcoin during world war 3 but i know that it is more than 1M after world war 3 😀
P_S_trade
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Alternative scenario
DLavrov
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@P_S_trade, Who knows! Thanks for sharing your chart.