gbleier

BTCUSDT Bitcoin Analysis Part 2

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
Update to my previous analysis where we missed target - I was off as I believe FUD and skepticism is slowly taking over and people are uncertain of either a large drop to 9800 and below or shot to 11150 and then 11500. This plus a combination of day traders who are buying and selling these regular oscillations between 10500 - 10800 are suppressing bulls.

Here is my updated channel where we deviated before, however we are still in an ascending channel . It appears as though we have formed an bullish ascending triangle pattern. (black area)

My guess is a breakout or fall back by 5-6 pm EST tonight should largely determine what happens next, ending this consolidation period we entered. If nothing happens then, most likely more consolidation at this level.

Options are as follows:

1) We break out of bullish ascending triangle with strong volume , heading to 11150 where we look for healthy pullback to 10900 or 11000 area.
2) We break out bearishly of triangle and head to 10350, where we A) rebound and stay in consolidation for another day or B) start testing lower supports at 9600-10200 area.
3) We break out of 10800 level and head to 11150 where we don't face much resistance due to high buy volumes (unlikely) and head to 11400 where you should definitely look for strong resistance.


**I apologize as arrow for 3 shows going to 12000, I meant to draw this to 11400. I do not believe we will reach 12000 that easily!


Note:

I've been watching crypto since 2015 and have made significant gains trading, however signals I'm seeing are highly unpredictable at this point. This is a whole new ball game from 2017 even and might show similarities but this is all very uncertain. Any comments or constructive criticism is highly welcome as I am always learning! Thank you!
Comment: Breakout occured exactly how it should have!! Very bullish sign. Passed 11050 with a breeze, and 11150 is not looking like much of a threat if this keeps up. We will see..

Comment: Just as described. Went somewhat easily through 11150 and went to 11400, I have the region between 11424 and 11500 highlighted because that's where I expected a dump. Of course it could happen +-100 anywhere in this region, must watch action on trading platforms!

Congrats to anyone who caught this dip! These are the areas you want to closely watch as they approach the hard resistance points.

Comment: Watching the action now as we are at another critical point on my graph. We have hit our lower channel, and as stated per my projections, we hit 11,400 and went through to 10800-10900 support.

If we fail to hold this level, price will likely start to test 10500.

If we hold this level, hopefully a retrace to 11150 and 11400 where faith will be tested again.
Comment: We remain below our lower channel and it seems as if we might be in consolidation for a while. After the dump, volumes have remained low.

As long as we close above 10500 I believe we will still move forward and updward to 11500 target. Just a matter of time.
Comment: Ok so we have maintained consolidation around the 10800 mark which is an excellent sign. It appears as though we have entered another bullish ascending triangle, but it is too late to call. Could be this or just normal consolidation around the 10800-11150 area for a while.

We started down route 2 after the dump at 11400, but with such a strong bull market it has moved with force back along to the 1 to 3 path where we move upward from here with positive outlook!

Comment: Wow, what an unpredictable ride! As expected, we broke out bullishly out from our ascending triangle pattern. I did not expect to enter it again so soon as we did last time, but to me this expresses the caution you should exercise in the next few days as the market starts to show bearish signals like failed breakouts.

I guess we are due for consolidation as started per my original analysis, so I do still see this as healthy, bouncing between our support and resistance of 10800 and 11150.

I am now seeing another breakout from our 2nd ascending triangle, look for high volume and igniting candles at 11400 so we don’t fail again. If we reach resistance – bearish signal, look for double top

Keep in mind I analyze short time frame signals. I am accurate for long run, and shorter time frames (15 min) deviate slightly but should still reach our goal. Look for the signs.
Comment: Exactly in the area I described.

Ascending triangle - false breakout - double top pattern to lower ascending triangle pattern - BUY POINTS for swing traders

2nd Ascending triangle breakout - leading to a smaller ascending triangle which broke out with very low volume

Reached end of arc in yellow area and broke out with high volume.

Waiting to see how this plays out in the next 20 mins. Above 11150 - bullish

Comment: Perfect play with bullish but weak breakout, sustained above 11150 = bullish!

Hitting 11470 where it reached heavy resistance to go back to 11000, heading back slowly to 11400.

Bullish

Comment: Probably an unpopular opinion and I could be/hope I'm very wrong, but I think there is a correction coming.

I think the 12000 resistance will be significant. We have ascended quickly with little resistance so far, and only a moderate correction from 11400. I think we will hit the 10800 or 10500 support, maybe lower.

I think everyone should closely watch this resistance and be prepared for a large dump.

It might not be immediate, there might be consolidation -> then dump, but I think it will happen in the next few days.

Comment: I stand corrected! Might be too early to tell, but we passed 12000 with a breeze. We faced a few sell volumes that were very large, but this bull market is unlike anything I've seen before...

Next stop, 36k high!!
Comment: Whelp, dump happened as I expected, but I was a few fibonacci levels off. It was due for a correction from the whales if you look at the historic data.

Comment:
Comment: Possible descending triangle pattern formation occuring....

Shout out to @botje for this inspiration and finding this fractal that occured in December, looks very similar to something that could happen.

Blue arrows are possible escape routes

Trade closed: target reached: Closing Trade: Target was reached June 25th
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