First of all, with this post, I'll not try to predict the ultimate bottom of BTC in this cycle because none can do this.
The proposed model as seen in chart is just one of some possible scenarios that I'll consider for my future trades. I would like to name it the "Elliptical Distribution".
Indeed, it seems that the BTC's prices have been moving in a big ellipsoid starting from October 2021. If I want to fit all "pivot" points (from 1 to 5) by an ellipsoide, the end of this one is around in March 2023 where BTC prices would be around 9K-10K. It means that the downtrend of BTC may not end here. This hypothesis sounds logical because the selling volumes continue to increase since Octorber 2021 and it'll take some time for the trend to decrease.
Next, when we look inside this ellipsoid, BTC's prices have been also bounded inside smaller ellipsoids. A "markdown" ellipsoid is followed by a "(re)distribution' one.
How would one use this model? In my opinion, as long as the model holds, one should pay attention when BTC prices are close to the ellipsoids' boundaries and adapt his trades.
I would appriciate if you could comment on this analysis.
Thank you in advance and have good trades!
Cheers!
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Prices are touching the current ellipsoid's boundary...
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Prices were rejected and dropped from the boundary of the big ellipsoid.
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OBV indicator seems to go to the next support level. If true, it implies a big sell-off.