There is possible scenario for bitcoin is classic wyckoff distribution schematic :
Stages :
Preliminary supply: where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching.
BC—buying climax: during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price.
AR—automatic reaction : With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution.
ST—secondary test: in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. supply outweigh demand; volume and spread decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC.
SOW—sign of weakness: observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the AR, occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the bitcoin: supply is now dominant.
UT-upthrust UT : bitcoin break all time high, but reversal after that, back into the distribution region.
UTAD—upthrust after distribution : here is the phase we are in currently, A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: for the bitcoin pattern, may contains a UTAD (break all time high), may not, reversal before the all time high
and from the technical indicator, bitcoin shown some sign of weakness in momentum: 1. daily RSI divergence 2. Weekly RSI divergence 3. volume decrease when price going up.
some other signs may indicate the danger of this bull run: 1. alt pumping, even shit coins without fundamental 2. alts dominance (OTHERS.D) reaches all time high 3. DXY daily bull run trends forming, long term negative related with bitcoin price
Good luck!
Trade active
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This idea still in play, the 55000 level is the key for this pattern can move on.
if 55000 & 54000 break in daily candle close, the probability of this pattern improved.
Trade active
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Still in play for this idea, the second scenario: break the all time high and then drop.
Your Wyckoff is sound.
I do not agree April. Inst's want more FOMO free advertising, public "adoption".
Market manipulation will keep new ATH/Distibution not to occur so quick.
Must let Gary Gensler of MIT BlcokChain to take Sec Treasury position first.
Keep public virus scare, and confusion going.
StarLink Internet over 50% coverage.
Allow VISA to finish making people accustomed to new digital fee rape, Circle/USDC/Coinbase re-branding of old lies...
When we break the 2yr, then it is head injury monkey's drinking Coca Cola on rope swing inside Nuke Reactor cooling tower.