You can draw lines all day but it's the data underneath the price action you need to uncover. Volatility, price action, and volume look pretty similar across the board between now and successful retests of a upside pennant breakout. The one thing that leaves me questioning the success of this retest is the OBV. On Balance Volume is a cumulative value that adds the volume if the price went up and subtracts it if it goes down. Essentially, this indicates whether the price action is backed by more bears or bulls. We've currently broken out of the pennant, and most of us figured we'd retest it, but has anyone really thought about who's winning the volume game? It appears to be close, but the bears seem to have a touch more control currently, so I don't see this retest being successful. However, since everything else looks identical, we're in a tight game of tug-o-war, and we'll continue to go sideways until there's reason to join one side - which there doesn't seem to be any outside motivators .
