the bottom yet to come - wyckoff accumulation phase

elliott wave analysis of bitcoin on daily timeframe

the latest move/wave does not look like an impulsive move but rather a corrective move

as a result, the idea of bear continuation and new bottom occurrence probability shall not be ignored.

If it is the case, then we may assume that the market might be in a accumulation phase for extended period of time (as displayed in the chart) mainly sideways and probable new bottom to form before the bull run resumes

details of the analysis is presented on the chart and you are kindly invited to check the links below for further details of the characteristics of the elliott waves

please note that :
- these patterns do not provide any kind of certainty about future price movement, but rather, serve in helping to order the probabilities for future market action
- trade setups must be confirmed in conjunction with other forms of technical and fundamental analysis
- and please remember that this analysis is not a financial advice and presented for educational purpose only

Elliott Wave Theory : Motive Waves and Corrective Waves
Published Indicators : Indicators page

Comment:

the steadily volume increase since the recent low, imho confirms that we are in accumulation phase

accumulation area defintion (source investopedia)
- represents a period of implicit buying, typically by institutional buyers, while the price remains fairly stable.
- on a price chart, the accumulation area is characterized by sideways price movement on above-average volume
- moves in a sideways range for an extended period

I have aimed too present one of the possible scenarios above and here is some other alternatves

on the other hand we shall not be ignoring that the current move could also be a leading diagonal,
in this case once the diagonal completes we will observe a correction but this time the correction should remain above the recent low

Comment:

when the recent bottom formed, based on the initial posted idea the structure look liked that have changed slightly. instead of complex wave 4 the possibility of having wave 4 as simple has arose and the market seemd to be in progress of developing wave 5
the final leg (5th wave) commonly forms as an ending diagonal and with divergence. The latest jump in the market invalidated forming the ending diagonal. So we might be back to the initially posted idea, that is, wave 4 is forming as complex wave and still developing and not completed
as a result we might be at the final leg of the wave 4 which could be a running or expanding flat. final leg of a flat is an impulse wave in lower degree and it apears to be impulsive with the latest jump (which aslo reduces the probability of having wxy)
exapanding flat case scenario

in any case we shall not be ignoring the bullish case as well

please note that :
- these patterns do not provide any kind of certainty about future price movement, but rather, serve in helping to order the probabilities for future market action
- trade setups must be confirmed in conjunction with other forms of technical and fundamental analysis
- and please remember that this analysis is not a financial advice and presented for educational purpose only

Comment:

i have ignored wxy scenario but appears likely to have the possibility to form. so the current level shall be watched very closely. please check details below

Comment:

the price action currently is in/approching an important level as stated in the jan 16 update

here are some technical indications

* price action is about to touch an important resistance level

* divergence can be observed in 4H chart

* many momentum oscillators are now in overbought zone

* td sequential printed perfect 9

from elliott wave perspective we may point out few different approaches
* bottom already formed and bull trend started where the wave 1 is almost about to complete. The above mentioned resitance level might be the end of wave 1, and then we can expect a correction

* other cases might be bearish continiuation scenarios, we need to keep eye on the movements and do further analysis when we reach important levels

as a result : in any approach the structure seems that bears are going to be in control for a while, eighter a retracemnet or bearish continuation

please note that :
- these patterns do not provide any kind of certainty about future price movement, but rather, serve in helping to order the probabilities for future market action
- trade setups must be confirmed in conjunction with other forms of technical and fundamental analysis
- and please remember that this analysis is not a financial advice and presented for educational purpose only

Trade closed manually:

the bullish sentiment that we were expecting presented itself differently as from one expected, in fact last 3 weeks price action was presenting signs but have not been able to update the idea
we are still in the resistance zone so be careful for any potential traps.