I'm getting better and better at recognizing Wyckoff accumulation and distribution channels. I've realized one major asset: WYCKOFF CHANNELS ARE NOT ALL STRAIGHT like Wyckoff schematics make you think.
They take forms of ascending and descending channels as well and they all mesh together and work in conjunction with one another. Multiple distribution channels can make up an accumulation pattern, and so on and so on.
Right now what we are seeing is 2 smaller distribution channels combining and feeding off of a larger descending channel that we are in the ending waves of.
I believe we are seeing a UTAD forming which should in theory take us to apx 54k. Now... Keep in mind, that UTADs are NOT a requirement, they do not have to form.
IF price goes below 47k, that's our signal that a larger UTAD will not be forming, and that we are going to have a LPSY event in the blue distribution channel, which would still give the smaller green distribution channel the UTAD. The biggest reason I believe that the UTAD will take us to around 54k is simply because there are still large futures gaps to cover in that region:
So for right now, the 54k theory is more likely in my mind than a reversal at 49k. I did map both of them on the chart so you can see what would happen in either instances. But a large drop is a foregone conclusion... It will happen. Period.
Here is the larger pattern that I was talking about:
We are currently in the SOW Phase D of the larger timeframe descending channel which is distributive, not accumulative. Therefore a large drop way below the trading range is in order soon.