Hello everyone, rouzwelt here
well If have been my following posts lately, you know that I've been talking a lot about a potential local uprise and a break-out above the down-trend line (blue down-sloping line) and I've been pointing out the possible projection of this scenario happening, as you can see in the screenshot of my last post about BTC (picture below - full article link at bottom of the page " Wyckoff Redistribution Update") Candles actually printed with good accuracy compared to my projection and I have posted a scalping trade based on this idea, I personally took it and my entry was at 34700 USDT, I hope that you have followed this idea and entered a long position along with me but if you've not, let me say that there might still be a chance for that as I'll be explaining later on.
Right now price is entering a local resistance area of 36.5/37.5K (first gray box on the chart), It's a critical level for BTC at this stage if we want to see higher levels. We have not got a retest of the down-trend line (blue down-sloping line) yet, but that might come with a good probability, if it happens and manages to hold the support around that area that would be good entry point for those of you that didn't open any positions, and for me personally I'll be increasing my position in that case (likely price action projection NO.1 - green arrow).
But a retest might not happen and we may rise up from here without one, although that is not the best scenario for a sustainable uprise but if we somehow see BTC starts to build some support near the 36.5/37.5K area and spend some time around there and also manages to hold the up-trend line (purple up-sloping line) then that may actually be a good indication of upper levels. (likely price action projection NO.2 - green arrow)
But if we see a breakdown of the up-trend line (purple up-sloping line) followed by failed retest of the main down-trend line (blue down-sloping line) we would see the bearish scenario playing out which will be the case when we start to see a momentum shift and increase of volume at rally down and decrease of it at reactions.
Right now we see increase of volume at rallies up and decrease of volume at reactions which is a good indication of more buyers are willing to step in and increasing demand. this needs to be sustainable.
My Stop-Loss is still at the last swing low, right at the break-down of the blue down-trend line, but I'm going to move that to entry as soon as price starts its next rally up or a successful retest.
That's all for today, I hope it'll be helpful and like always have fun and trade safe.
well If have been my following posts lately, you know that I've been talking a lot about a potential local uprise and a break-out above the down-trend line (blue down-sloping line) and I've been pointing out the possible projection of this scenario happening, as you can see in the screenshot of my last post about BTC (picture below - full article link at bottom of the page " Wyckoff Redistribution Update") Candles actually printed with good accuracy compared to my projection and I have posted a scalping trade based on this idea, I personally took it and my entry was at 34700 USDT, I hope that you have followed this idea and entered a long position along with me but if you've not, let me say that there might still be a chance for that as I'll be explaining later on.
Right now price is entering a local resistance area of 36.5/37.5K (first gray box on the chart), It's a critical level for BTC at this stage if we want to see higher levels. We have not got a retest of the down-trend line (blue down-sloping line) yet, but that might come with a good probability, if it happens and manages to hold the support around that area that would be good entry point for those of you that didn't open any positions, and for me personally I'll be increasing my position in that case (likely price action projection NO.1 - green arrow).
But a retest might not happen and we may rise up from here without one, although that is not the best scenario for a sustainable uprise but if we somehow see BTC starts to build some support near the 36.5/37.5K area and spend some time around there and also manages to hold the up-trend line (purple up-sloping line) then that may actually be a good indication of upper levels. (likely price action projection NO.2 - green arrow)
But if we see a breakdown of the up-trend line (purple up-sloping line) followed by failed retest of the main down-trend line (blue down-sloping line) we would see the bearish scenario playing out which will be the case when we start to see a momentum shift and increase of volume at rally down and decrease of it at reactions.
Right now we see increase of volume at rallies up and decrease of volume at reactions which is a good indication of more buyers are willing to step in and increasing demand. this needs to be sustainable.
My Stop-Loss is still at the last swing low, right at the break-down of the blue down-trend line, but I'm going to move that to entry as soon as price starts its next rally up or a successful retest.
That's all for today, I hope it'll be helpful and like always have fun and trade safe.
Trade closed: stop reached:
My SL was hit over the night and my position closed with -2.6% loss.
As I said before the whole trend is downward and for going long you should know that the trend is against you and you need tight SL.
right now I'm waiting to see if we get a retest of the blue trend line cause I believe that it might be good scalping short entry point.
as you can see in the chart my number 3 projection is playing out with good accuracy, so I'll be looking for short setups if it continues that way.
As I said before the whole trend is downward and for going long you should know that the trend is against you and you need tight SL.
right now I'm waiting to see if we get a retest of the blue trend line cause I believe that it might be good scalping short entry point.
as you can see in the chart my number 3 projection is playing out with good accuracy, so I'll be looking for short setups if it continues that way.
If price starts to show some sign of strengths again I'll be opening my position again at the same price, but right now I see volume coming in at rallies down which is a indication of supply entering the market at this stage, if this structure continues I'll be opening a short position at confirmed (4H or daily close below the blue trend line) break down of the blue trend line or at its retest (if we get one).
I believe there might be stop loss haunt with a good possibility, or maybe the breakout of the trend line was just a fake out and we see lower levels, as I have said many times, the whole macro trend is towards down-side, so for going long we must be very cautious adn use tight stop losses and even if we see early sign of momentum shift we should better close the long position manually, its called risk management.