Here I am going to talk a little bit about the foundation of the waves then will discuss my idea.
The form of the Wave Principle reflects the progress not of each man or company but of mankind as a whole and his enterprise. Companies come and go. Trends, fads, cultures, needs and desires ebb and flow with the human condition. Therefore, the progress of general business activity is well reflected by the Wave Principle, while each individual area of activity has its own essence, its own life expectancy, and a set of forces which may relate to it alone. Thus, each company, like each man, appears on the scene as part of the whole, plays its part, and eventually returns to the dust from which it came.
These lines are from the Waves book, which I liked pretty much. And now coming to the Bitcoin , well it certainly represents the cryptocurrency market and all other coin seems to follow it. And if we see the market from now, there too many currencies out there and many more to come, but most of them are going to eliminate, a few will remain and Bitcoin is going to lead them. Because Bitcoin is not controlled by anyone and its growth is all natural. So it should follow the natural laws. That’s why I think that Bitcoin follows the waves pretty well.
I have tried to count all the till now from the point data exists on Tradingview, and this is my idea about the BTC right now. You just have to have the basic idea about the waves to understand this Idea. If you don’t, went through this: “http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory”
1st wave was started from April 2015 and completed on June 2016. It was started with 100 USD and completed with around 800 USD, and that 1st wave also had 5 sub waves, not going to explain in detail you can clearly see it in the chart.
2nd wave was the correction for the 1st wave, which almost retraced around 50% of the first wave which lead it to around 450 USD. (June 2016 – August 2016). With 3 sub waves (correction waves)
One wave I left which is from August 2016 to January 2017, because it was a sideways action and doesn’t fit in the wave count.
3rd wave was started from January 2017 (750 USD) and completed in August 2017(5000 USD) with 5 sub waves.
4th wave was the correction for the 3rd wave which almost retraced 50% of the 3rd wave and ended up at around 3000 USD.
And now comes the most interesting wave, 5th wave And I am going to explain it in detail. So here we go,
5th wave has 5 sub waves, let’s see them in detail:
1st wave of the 5th wave was started in 11th September 2017 from 3000 USD and completed at 7650 USD on 30th October.
2nd wave was started on 30 October 2017 from 7650 USD and completed at 5200 USD on 6th November 2017 with of the first wave.
3rd wave, which was very strong wave was started on 6th November 2017 from 5200 USD and completed at around 20000 USD on around 17th December 2017.
The 4th wave which retraced around 60% of the 3rd wave was completed at around 11300 USD in the next week.
5th wave was very interesting, it was a truncated (failed) wave which is theoretically correct, because truncated waves form due to the strong previous wave and because 3rd wave was too strong. So the 5th wave(truncated wave) was completed at around 17300 USD.
And this is how the 1st bigger wave or 1st wave of the superwave was completed in Jan 2018.
Then started the 2nd wave or correction wave, which also have three waves ( ).
A wave completed with 5 sub waves, in which 5th wave was a truncated wave due to strong 3rd wave.
Right now we are in B wave, for which A and B waves are completed and we are now in the C wave. Which is supposed to complete in July 2018 at around 12000 USD. There is a strong resistance line at around 9000 USD so there is a possibility that the C wave of wave B completes at 9000.
Then we will go for the C wave which may end up at around 5000-6000 USD for 2nd wave.