In reference to previous posts a likely ABC correction was completed at $17400 with a 5 wave C wave sub wave count evident to add to the validity of the count; from there it was expected to see some impulsive price action to the downside in which price came down to the orderblock 2 given by a 4 hr orderblock which in the past acted as a key support area where many wicks were evident to the downside and acted as support when price was above such orderblock and resistance when below. Price came down in 5 waves with a strong truncation in the 5th wave into the orderblock where buyers came in and strong push upwards occured; the idea of a 1,2 1,2 wave count was invalidated hence, now the alternative larger wave 1 is preferred. Price then got above the key Orderblock 1 indicated on chart however, has no closed strongly below after holding and testing support many times.
This is an extremely bearish tell tale sign and should lead to some strong bearish price action in a likely wave 3; where can price be forecasted to likely end up? - the 1.618 lines up in confluence with a strong support area which held wave 2 of the C wave correction at approximately $16200; this is a likely wave 3 destination in a larger 5 wave move lower.
Furthermore, Bitcoin has now dropped the lower uptrend line, signalling a break of the uptrend and the formation of a new downtrend, and a potential sharp sell of can occur.
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Very good charting. Thank you for sharing this great idea!
SwallowPremium
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Great chart with good description!
GDuBFX
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On your 5 waves down after your "C" wave, why do you have the 5th wave ending higher than wave 3?
NICKVASS10
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@GDuBFX, This occurence is termed a "failure wave" or "truncation of the 5th wave" in elliot wave terminology, where price tried to push further down in a terminal 5th wave but was not strong enough and hence did not move beyond the end of the third wave and price reversed; this often occurs when the overall trend is exhausted of that wave degree or following a particularly strong 3rd wave. In this case it is likely that a "failure wave" occured when price tried to push below that significant orderblock and a rejection of sellers occured thus terminating the final wave and reversing into wave 2.
@GDuBFX, i dont like that count as the time proportionality of waves is extremely unlikely; for instance the Minor wave 4 you have in blue is extremely long in time and is more proportionate in time to be a Minor Wave 4 black. Furthermore, the C wave would be way too long relative to A wave and B wave and is becoming more unlikely the longer it continues. Also on your chart your Minor wave 2 (blue) is shorter in duration then corrective waves in (purple) which are subwaves of a lesser degree; this is a rule violation of elliot guidelines, sub waves cannot be longer in duration in a wave of a higher degree. Hence, it is preffered that a C wave has been completed.
GDuBFX
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GDuBFX
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@NICKVASS10 duration in time is not a rule in elliot waves.. a wave can last as long as it needs to. Sometimes you will have complex corrections that go on for a long time, look how long the correction went on from the low in June to the crash after FTX collapse that went on for months in comparison to the other waves down, that was a lot longer in duration. Duration has no significance. Where have you seen that rule about sub waves and duration too, that is not something I have ever seen as a rule.
Here's a sentence from the elliot waves description on wiki about waves size / duration:
"Each degree of a pattern in a financial market has a name. Practitioners use symbols for each wave to indicate both function and degree. Numbers are used for motive waves, and letters for corrective waves (shown in the highest of the three idealized series of wave structures or degrees). Degrees are not strictly defined by absolute size or duration, by form. Waves of the same degree may be of very different size or duration."
NICKVASS10
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@GDuBFX, thank you for your response I should be more clearer these would not be described as rules but rather guidelines and characteristics of waves within the same degree. This is especially true with impulse waves or actionary waves there is a strong relationship between duration; and it is extremely unlikely the wave count you have posited as the Minor Wave 1 (black) is extremely proportionate in time to Minor Wave 4 (blue) and therefore there is an extremely strong likelyhood that they are of the same degree. Further more you can see that wave C is an exact 1.236 fib time extension of Wave B; giving a strong validity to wave C top.
To clarify, yes there is a possibility of your wave outcome but in my opinion it is unlikely.
NICKVASS10
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@GDuBFX, Also the low in june was a macro wave 3 completion leading to a macro wave hence why we see a longer duration correction compared to corrections of lower degrees. This explains differences in duration.