SimonMercier

BTCUSDT : Beware of a potential pivot between 9.3k and 10k

POLONIEX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether USD
Hi guys, Today I show a secret part of my method : Setting expectations.


I expect BTC to return bearish between these value that i projected yesterday in my bullish scenario :


What add weight to this expectation :
  • MACD 1D might crossover the signal (still not crossed it but heading toward that direction) but MACD is more complex tool. A crossover (no matter where it happens) need to be put in his location perspective (remember that MACD 1D still not crossed the signal) I hope you learned throught my post that the negative spectrum of the MACD is the bear zone. So a signal crossover is not garant of a sustained bullish run, it just show that the price head toward testing upper resistance
  • The standard deviation already showing less volatility and movement price as price grow. This tell that the momentum loose energy (less momentum=less fluctuation=more chance of a reversal). Right now at 1.2k, it matches the pivot zone near of 9.3-10K. If we calculate the standard deviation with yesterday low we have 9.5k as reference.
  • The standard/traditionnal point is near the projected reversal zone
  • Fibonacci level is there
  • Price are still under MA 200 (9170) and MA 200 correlate in the pivot zone
  • Weekly macd still show an underlying bearish trend
  • My primary scenario (ABCDE correction) still not completed point E
  • Point E correlate with full fibo retracement and S pivot point
  • Strong daily log trend resistance near 10k lvl which rejected impulses many times

To conclude : we have a lower prices fluctuations heading toward strong resistance with a MACD 1D still in the bearish zone. Normally a good bull trend have steady or higher price fluctuation (standard deviation) leading toward resistance (strong momentum=higher chance to go through resistance).
Mar 20
Trade active: Im not a eternal bear. Its that with experience i often tend to look on the better occasion to enter. Indicators stay indicators, people call often that they are lagging and dont project the future price. I agree, its our method, our brain that do the trick but on the other side i cant ignore them and i always try to find the balance between all the data. I am more prudent overtime and dont buy/sell as much as in the past and prefer to make the brain works. Money will follow everytime.

Mar 21
Trade active: we see the momentum getting lower as it has bounced down form the MA 200. STDDEV still seems to go lower. Price follows at this time the projection :
Mar 21
Comment: MA was 9170 at the time of posting and price turned red at 9174
Mar 22
Trade active: Perfect learning occasion of possible MACD crossover signal in a negative spectrum :

I projected price movement flow of both scenario (red = bounce = bearish) (green = crossover = bullish)
Mar 24
Trade active: Main bearish count remain as the leading one. Will explain why tomorrow with the new data i project. If the data show otherwise then i will adjust probabilities.
when are we going lower than 6k. This is taking too long.
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SimonMercier samiswilf
@samiswilf, the hardest thing to predict precissely is the time my friend. The more it takes the more we question ourselves. Each day is a piece of a bigger puzzle and we dont know how much pieces the puzzle have but try to guess what it would looks like when all the pieces will be together.

But yea waiting is the worst part. Thats why working with daily and weekly chart help so much to put everything in perspective.
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Yes the price bounced off of the 200 MA at bitfinex, they started selling off the candle the exchange came back online too
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I agree, but do you think Alts will follow on the way down this time?
Right now alts moving up faster than btc. It's unusual from the previous run up from 6k to 11k. Back then alts didn't follow.
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SimonMercier fehimsahan
@fehimsahan, it shows for me that the alt price start to be in a value of high demand zone. thats why they immediately bounce bakc up and higher than btc
+1 Reply
Great work Sir Simon! See you down under one day :-)
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@djtreacy, lets promise each other to have a beer ;) until then i will try to share my knowledge the best i can and help the best i can !
Reply
djtreacy SimonMercier
@SimonMercier,
Looking forward to it :-) thanks heaps for your help!
+2 Reply
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