julio24albert

Bitcoin : Scenario for downside moves

Short
BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
The last few days has became an interesting event to trade on the cryptocurrency, especially if you were longing bitcoin. It would be a nice and perfect entry to get some significant profit. Since the broke out of the $14000 resistance range, bitcoin has spiked for around 12% to the upside until it touched the $16000 range as the strong resistance. But right after it touched the shadow resistance, price is showing some kind of rejection until it drops to the $14000 zone again. It's way a normal behavior as the volatility is increasing over time. Now, let's see what is the possible movement for the future projection.

Back at the 3 phases of break out strategy, we can see that the price has broken out from the blue region which previously was acting as a strong resistance before the price broke it a few days ago. Since this break out, the price hasn't shown us some sign of retesting this previous resistance as a strong support which is the phase 2 of break out strategy. We may have seen the key of turning point when the price retested the upper line of the previous broken ascending channel and it leads the price with a nice bounce. But I still see this as the minor factor of level. The blue region is much more significant than the upper line of this ascending channel that's why I still see the potential down side moves to test this region in the future. Beside, this blue region is having an alignment with the median line of the channel.

Another factor that I see a huge possibility of the price to test the lower region is at the RSI movement which it has printed some bearish divergence for potential reversal pattern. On the MACD, we can see that in the 12 hours chart there is a potential of death cross occurs too which may lead the price to lower region.

However, this 12 hours time frame is becoming the most crucial time frame we might see as we must monitor the MACD crossover and the potential of histogram ticks down to the negative side. But, for the longer term I see this potential correction as the temporary downside moves to gain any strength before the price continue to spike higher.

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