Now that everyone turned bullish, i wanted to analyse the possibility of an uptrend.
Let's start;
We have seen a higher high (HH) on June 29th at $36.600 following a higher low (HL) which are bullish signs, but notice how the HH felt $650 short from the top of this so called uptrend! It should have made a high at least at $37.253 which was the close of May.
It didn't and that's weakness. Maybe what we were looking at was an upthrust after distribution (UTAD)?
Now, price has just touched $35.750, the old weekly high and pulled back, we should see a jump towards 40k if this uptrend is real.
That's a 5k candle.
Bitcoin is know for it's unpredictability, it certainly can do this jump but i would like to see that candle first before i enter a trade. Because if this is just a nother trap, then we are looking at a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) in wyckoff distribution theory which ends up in a markdown like the one we had back in May 8-10. Look how we made HH's and LH's until the huge drop and notice the weakness.
Speaking of wyckoff, i'm seeing lot's of uneducated comments and analysis on this, even from the famous social media gurus.
When you ask them, they would reply; "I'm not a wyckoff guy" LOL :)
One should - at least- know that there are 4 schematics in Wyckoff Theory not 1:
Everybody is referring to Wyckoff Accumulation and how it's on track, however re-distribution schematics is almost identical until phase C. That's why validation of the schematics is very important.
These weaknesses we have seen until now does not validate Accumulation and it's a signal for re-distribution unless we see that candle at 40k's.
So, is it worth to take the risk now? No.
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Who's selling, who's buying.
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Are we going to 80k?
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$18.76 Billion Worth of Bitcoins Were Dumped On Retail Investors!
I know that my bias is bullish so studying your analysis is always critical for me, living having a century on this earth there's no doubt it's important somebody tells tells you the thing you don't want to hear at all. Always appreciate your insight and knowledge. Feeling a bit of fomo but holding off on another buy because of good work like yours. Thanks.
BitcoinMillio18
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@rmcnaughton2, i'm fundamentally bullish long term, bearish short term in order to buy more BTC. I just want to be on the right side of the trade. Thanks for checking counter opinions, i may be wrong as well.
waterslide
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I'm in from 31.6 and have added along the way aiming for ~44ks or so. UTAD/bulltrap and then back down to range EQ or retest the lows. Should be a very nice shorting opportunity up there once everyone flips bullish. I would be surprised if this was a sustained trend reversal to overall bullishness. Not enough gas in the tank to challenge the the all-time high just yet. But of course, one never really knows ;) Keep up the great work!
BitcoinMillio18
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@waterslide, thanks, i think 37k can be a local breakout and 40-41k will face serious resistance. If these levels are cleared we can call it a point of no return.
decentBeer45162
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Let's look at how the daily volume have decresead! .. bearish IMO. What are your thoughts regarding to volume?
BitcoinMillio18
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@decentBeer45162, volume is tricky. It can spread over time. I prefer p&f charts to check volume on a given trend as a whole. Right now, both bullish and bearish volume has decreased but we are still in the downtrend column.
AtlasTrades
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Good idea, agree!
ncncryptography
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Another SUPERB write-up by the man himself. Thorough, thoughtful, and willing to look at the situation from every perspective.
Thank you Millio, I truly enjoy reading your analysis each time one is posted.